Bitcoin is on track for its weakest October since 2020, as the price fell below September’s closing level and soft demand in the US market has placed additional pressure on the cryptocurrency. BTC traded near $80,800 on Wednesday, a decline from its September close of $83,567. Data from CoinCodex showed Bitcoin has lost around 4% in October, reversing a trend where October often brought strong performance for the cryptocurrency.
Monthly losses deepen after strong Octobers
Historically, October has delivered average gains of 18.1% for Bitcoin since 2020, but last year the asset dropped 3.8% during the month. If the current trend continues, October will register another downturn, signaling weaker momentum and marking the most challenging October performance in six years.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant indicated that lower-than-usual buying interest has accompanied the recent price weakness. The market appears unable to absorb continued selling, leaving Bitcoin open to further volatility as investors await direction from US policymakers.
On-chain indicators show that lackluster demand is struggling to absorb ongoing selling, keeping markets open to further swings as traders wait for signals from the Federal Reserve.
Coinbase Premium stays negative, signaling soft US demand
CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium—a metric comparing BTC prices on the US-based Coinbase exchange with those of offshore platforms such as Binance—remained negative throughout October. A negative premium occurs when Bitcoin trades at a discount on Coinbase relative to other exchanges, suggesting weaker spot demand from US buyers.
The Coinbase Premium reached approximately -0.146 this month, the lowest level since late June. The October average of -0.093 is nearly three times deeper than September’s figure, highlighting the considerable softening in US-based buyer activity.
Mini dictionary: Coinbase Premium, a metric tracking the difference between Bitcoin’s trading price on Coinbase versus overseas exchanges. A negative value reflects a relative lack of buying pressure from US investors.
| Metric | October 2025 | September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Coinbase Premium (average) | -0.093 | -0.03 |
| Lowest Coinbase Premium (monthly) | -0.146 | – |
| BTC monthly return | -4% | -3.8% |
Bull Score Index drops as market conditions cool
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, an aggregate gauge of market sentiment, fell from 90 to 60 during October. This sharp drop reflects a cooler market environment. The index integrates ten different indicators to assess Bitcoin’s broader market regime. While a score of 60 does not indicate a bearish market by itself, a slide below 50 would suggest a more decisive shift away from bullish conditions. According to CryptoQuant, six of the ten gauges remain positive, preventing a more drastic downgrade thus far.
Short-term holders also saw a significant reduction in unrealized gains. Bitcoin traded around 8.1% above the realized price for coins held one to three months as of October 26, a notable drop from 33.4% just one month earlier. Consequently, these investors may be more sensitive to future downward movements.
CryptoQuant noted that thinning unrealized profits among recent buyers could make them more likely to react if prices fall further, increasing volatility risk.
Federal Reserve decision now in the spotlight
Attention has now shifted to the US Federal Open Market Committee, which will conclude its policy meeting this week. Traders are watching the accompanying statement and press conference for indications on future interest rate moves and overall financial conditions.
A policy stance appearing supportive of risk assets could potentially lift market sentiment. However, a more restrictive outlook might add to the pressure on Bitcoin prices. Current data points to a down month, weak relative US spot demand, and a decline in CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index. The Federal Reserve’s comments are widely seen as a key factor in determining whether Bitcoin’s losses deepen or see a late-month reversal.
