Bitcoin’s recent bull market faces new uncertainty after a reported security breach at Binance drained $6.3 billion across 10 blockchains on October 29. Although the weekly price decline for Bitcoin was moderate, large outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and an upcoming US midterm vote add to the uncertainty about the market’s next direction.
Record Binance hack sparks cautious sentiment
Reports indicate that the October 29 incident stands as the largest crypto exchange hack on record, with funds affected across multiple blockchains. Binance committed to reimbursing all losses and began phased user withdrawals on November 1 in response to the breach.
The incident prompted concerns over whether such a large-scale attack would trigger a wider sell-off for Bitcoin. On-chain analyst Willy Woo calculated a 2.9% drop for Bitcoin in the week of the hack, which he compared to gold’s 3% decline over the same period and Bitcoin’s 25% downturn during the 2022 FTX collapse.
Woo’s analysis offered context for the recent move, suggesting that while the hack was significant, its direct impact on the price may have been less than some previous events.
Market observers like Ash Crypto have pointed out that declines of 20% can occur even during positive trends for Bitcoin. However, neither this view nor week-to-week comparisons can definitively identify the current phase of the market.
Chart signals show mixed momentum
Technical indicators remain ambiguous. Bitcoin closed above its 50-week moving average for a seventh consecutive week, as highlighted by Ash Crypto. This streak began in September, a sign some analysts see as historically significant. Galaxy research head Alex Thorn noted that similar recoveries of the 50-week moving average in the past have marked bear-market lows. Data provided by BeInCrypto placed this average at $75,602, with Bitcoin trading 3.6% higher at the time of reporting.
Momentum readings have also stayed positive. PlanB’s 14-month relative strength index (RSI) remained above 50 for the third consecutive month. October’s 7.32% loss ended a three-month winning streak, but the RSI reading is generally interpreted as a sign of more buyers than sellers during the period. While PlanB described the current RSI streak as the start of a new bull market, he stressed that momentum indicators offer perspective on market conditions but do not determine future price direction.
Momentum and moving average signals provide clues about market health but do not give certainty about future price action.
Given volatile conditions and competing signals, many traders are seeking efficient ways to stay updated on sudden swings and breaking data points. CryptoAppsy’s customizable smart price alerts and live news feeds can help users track rapid price changes and on-chain events across multiple coins in real time, allowing faster responses should another major hack or ETF-related headline emerge.
ETF outflows and recent price levels
Fund flows represent a separate layer of market response. After the hack, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $643.33 million on October 30. These outflows erased several days of inflows and left the week with a net outflow of about $202 million. Glassnode data estimated the average cost basis for US ETF holders at $82,308, while Bitcoin changed hands around $77,946 at 10:13 UTC on November 2, putting most holders below their average entry price at that point.
Other key measures highlight the cautious mood. Bitcoin posted a daily loss of 0.16% and was down 2.67% on the week. Over the previous 30 days, prices declined 7.79%, according to CoinGecko, and Coinglass data put Bitcoin 10.4% below its January 1 level. On November 2, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 37, labeled as Fear.
These signals present a mixed picture. While price, fund flow, and technical momentum metrics provide context, none point to a clear market direction going forward.
Looking ahead: upcoming vote and reference levels
The next potential driver is the US midterm vote on November 3. Historical performance data compiled by Coinglass show Bitcoin has ended November higher in 10 of the past 16 years, with a median gain of 10.3%. Midterm election years have shown mixed results, with half ending up and half down; notable bear-market declines occurred in 2018 and 2022.
Analysts are watching whether Bitcoin maintains a weekly close above the 50-week moving average after the vote—a possible technical distinction from previous midterm-year bear markets. They also note the $82,308 average ETF holder cost basis and $87,500 as significant resistance, according to Ash Crypto’s analysis. These levels serve as reference points for monitoring, not guarantees of support or resistance.
