ChartNerd, a widely followed analyst recognized on X under the handle @ChartNerdTA, has urged XRP investors to pay close attention as the cryptocurrency navigates a critical technical phase. XRP, the native digital asset used in Ripple‘s ecosystem for global payments, has spent the past several weeks consolidating beneath an important resistance zone. ChartNerd outlined that the asset’s recent price moves closely resemble a pattern from two years ago, raising questions about whether history may soon repeat itself.
A historic price structure emerges
Referring to the performance of XRP in June 2022, ChartNerd recalled that XRP set a cycle bottom at that time before rallying 90% into the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). Following this surge, the price maintained levels above both the 20-week and 50-week EMAs for nearly two months, but ultimately failed to hold momentum and sharply reversed once it lost the 20-week EMA, revisiting its prior range lows.
That correction established what ChartNerd described as a macro double bottom, which successfully provided a foundation for a new upward breakout. He now identifies a nearly identical technical setup in the current market, noting that since XRP established a bottom at $0.98 in August, it climbed into the 50-week EMA and has spent roughly 10 weeks trading just beneath it.
XRP initially bottomed in August at $0.98, rallied up to the 50-week EMA, and spent the last 10 weeks trading below this key resistance—an almost exact mirror to the price structure seen in 2022.
The role of the 50-week exponential moving average
ChartNerd has consistently highlighted the 50-week EMA as the barrier XRP must reclaim before a significant price recovery can occur. He emphasized that price action has been capped by this moving average, stating that unless XRP closes above the 50-week EMA, upward movement will likely remain limited.
Losing the 20-week EMA to the downside, ChartNerd warned, could open the door to further declines toward $1 or even lower support zones he has tracked in recent analyses. The analyst has drawn direct parallels between the current market structure and that seen in 2022, underscoring that the outcome depends on whether XRP can defend the $1.14 to $1.16 price band.
Mini dictionary: Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a technical indicator that assigns more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to new information than a simple moving average. The 20-week and 50-week EMAs are commonly used by traders to identify trend direction and potential support or resistance levels.
ChartNerd maintains that until XRP decisively clears the 50-week EMA, significant price rallies are unlikely, and a drop below the 20-week EMA could bring $1 or lower into play.
Next possible moves: Support or breakdown?
If XRP manages to hold the $1.14 to $1.16 support zone while establishing a higher low, ChartNerd suggests this could avert a deeper retracement and signal renewed momentum for bulls. Such a development would indicate increased resilience, reducing the need to retest the lows recorded in August.
However, the current rejection from both moving averages is described by ChartNerd as “quite a strong rejection,” noting that traders should not rule out a return toward the double bottom target visible on the daily chart. He identifies $1.04 as the next significant level if support does not hold, indicating that price structure has recently shown signs of weakness on shorter timeframes.
| Support/Resistance | Level | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 50-week EMA | Current resistance | Breakout needed for upward trend |
| $1.14-$1.16 | Key support zone | Must hold for bullish case |
| 20-week EMA | Below price | Loss could lead to $1 target |
| $1.04 | Double bottom | Potential downside target if support fails |
ChartNerd’s outlook: Watching for confirmation
In his latest assessment, ChartNerd does not dismiss the risk of further downside if current levels fail. He points to the brief loss of structure as a reason for caution, yet draws attention to how a similar correction in 2022 eventually formed a strong double bottom and set the stage for a breakout.
For now, ChartNerd is monitoring two primary paths: either XRP holds support and trends up from a higher low near $1.14 to $1.16, or it revisits the $1.04 area, repeating the double bottom setup of the previous cycle.
