Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.9% over the past 24 hours on Monday, trading near $74,239 and dropping below the $75,000 psychological mark that many investors had been watching. The decline draws increased attention to the $74,400 support level, with traders now assessing whether the market could see a deeper correction.
Support levels in the spotlight
Data from derivatives analytics firm CoinGlass underscored the significance of the $74,400 level, with the company warning via X that a sustained move below this threshold would reinforce a bearish sentiment. With the BTC price currently hovering close to this boundary, market participants are watching for signs of either renewed buying or accelerated selling activity.
CoinGlass cited $74,400 as crucial support, warning that a break below could intensify selling pressure across Bitcoin markets.
Failure to hold this level, analysts suggest, could prompt a wave of spot selling. This atmosphere of caution is further reflected in weakening on-chain metrics and a bearish tilt in several weekly performance indicators.
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that Bitcoin started the week trading beneath its one-year median of $77,000, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
On-chain data and technical trends
Adler reported that Bitcoin declined 4.4%, falling from $78,000 to $74,000 between November 1 and 8. Since November 5, the cryptocurrency has remained under its 365-day median of $77,000, fluctuating between this level and the 25th percentile mark at $67,000.
Adjusted Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), which measures average unrealized profit of recent coin holders, fell from 1.075 to 1.047. This shift means coins held for less than seven years now reflect a drop in unrealized profit from 7.5% to 4.7%.
Adler explained that an MVRV above 1 indicates ongoing unrealized profit, but a fall below 1 would mean holders in this group are facing losses.
He emphasized $77,000 as a key resistance. Until Bitcoin moves back above this level, the price appears confined within a range marked by support at $67,000 and resistance at the one-year median.
Mini dictionary: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is a metric that compares the current market capitalization of a cryptocurrency to the price at which most coins were last transacted. This helps gauge whether holders are in profit or loss, indicating market sentiment and possible price direction.
| Date/Period | BTC Price | MVRV | Support/Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1–8 | $78,000 to $74,000 | 1.075 to 1.047 | $67,000 (support), $77,000 (resistance) |
| Current (Monday) | $74,239 | 1.047 | $74,400 (support) |
Alongside on-chain trends, technical analysis provides a similarly cautious view. Analyst Ted Pillows pointed out on X that Bitcoin recently completed five consecutive red weekly candles and slipped below its 50-week moving average.
He noted that failing to recover this moving average soon could result in a drop toward $70,000, which would be another 5% to 6% decline from current prices.
The five-week losing streak and loss of the 50-week moving average raise the likelihood of further losses taking Bitcoin to the $70,000 area.
As the week unfolds, investors are monitoring whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $74,400 and reclaim its $77,000 median. If these support levels fail and profitability weakens further, the $70,000 zone may become the next test for market participants.
