Recent on-chain data from Glassnode reveals a notable increase in short positions among large traders, often referred to as “whales,” which has contributed to a more defensive sentiment in the Bitcoin market.
Large Traders Build Short Positions on Hyperliquid
According to Glassnode, substantial traders on the decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid have shifted their Bitcoin perpetual futures holdings from net long to net short about two weeks ago. This reverses seven months of prevailing bullish positioning among these whale traders.
The 24-hour mean net positioning metric, tracking the difference between long and short exposure, shows bearish stances have steadily increased. This short exposure now stands at its highest since October 2025.
Historically, comparable levels of short positioning among Hyperliquid whales have aligned with periods of pronounced price declines in Bitcoin. While a direct repeat is not guaranteed, the data suggests heightened caution among major derivatives participants.
Whale traders on Hyperliquid have shifted to their largest net short exposure since October 2025, marking a clear pivot in derivatives sentiment and aligning with a more defensive technical outlook.
This repositioning coincides with Bitcoin’s failure to hold above a key technical indicator, intensifying the focus on market support levels.
Mini dictionary: Hyperliquid is a decentralized perpetual futures exchange offering high-capacity, low-latency trading for large cryptocurrency investors. The platform allows traders to take long or short positions on major crypto assets with high leverage and transparency on-chain.
Bitcoin Closes Below 50-Week Moving Average
Bitcoin ended the week at $74,968, moving below its 50-week moving average for the first time in approximately two months. The indicator had been fluctuating between $75,200 and $75,500, with Bitcoin sustaining a seven-week streak above this technical threshold until now.
The 50-week moving average is regarded as a crucial marker for Bitcoin’s longer-term trends. Previous cycles show that sustained trading below this average can accompany broader periods of weakness, though brief dips below have sometimes failed to lead to new cycle lows.
Market analyst AshCrypto noted that a speedy recovery above the 50-week moving average could result in a bullish reversal, forcing aggressive short sellers to cover positions. However, another weekly close below the indicator would reinforce bearish technical conditions, potentially putting the $60,000 zone at risk as further downside.
If Bitcoin can quickly reclaim the 50-week moving average, a bullish turnaround may occur, but a second close below it could intensify selling pressure and shift focus to support in the low-$60,000s.
Comparisons with the 2011–2012 and 2019–2020 cycles show that brief dips below this moving average have not always resulted in further new lows. BTC is currently trading about 26% higher than its June 2026 low of $59,517.
Indicators and Technicals Point to Broad Selling Pressure
TradingView’s technical summary currently gives Bitcoin an overall sell rating. Among moving averages, there are 12 sell signals, one neutral, and two buy signals. Oscillator readings are more mixed but do not outweigh the broad negative bias.
In aggregate, the platform shows 13 sell, seven neutral, and six buy signals, indicating continued downside pressure despite some short-term indicators nearing oversold conditions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36, modestly above the conventional oversold threshold of 30. The Stochastic indicator has dropped to 14, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at -127, and Williams Percent Range stands at -85; these suggest overstretched short-term selling and potential for near-term stabilization.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative at -1,709, signaling that broader market momentum is still weak. Bitcoin is also below its main short- and medium-term moving averages, with the 10-day EMA at $76,573, the 20-day EMA at $78,050, and the 50-day EMA at $79,209, presenting immediate resistance above current prices.
The 200-day simple moving average, positioned around $73,153, continues to serve as an important long-term support. Bitcoin trading above this level suggests the market retains some resilience, though deeper support may be tested if negative momentum persists.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 50-week MA | $75,200–$75,500 | Broke below |
| 200-day SMA | $73,153 | Above |
| 10-day EMA | $76,573 | Resistance |
| 20-day EMA | $78,050 | Resistance |
| Relative Strength Index (RSI) | 36 | Approaching oversold |
| MACD | -1,709 | Sell |
Key Support and Resistance Levels for BTC
The immediate technical focus for Bitcoin centers on the $73,300–$73,150 support range, where the classic pivot S1 at $73,329 and the 200-day SMA at $73,153 converge. A break below this region could expose the next downside target of $69,227, linked to classic pivot S2.
Should the weakness persist, the broader $60,000 area may become relevant, especially if Bitcoin continues to close below the 50-week moving average. On the upside, the first significant resistance is found between $76,500 and $78,500, which incorporates the 10-day and 20-day EMAs. A further rebound would face resistance near $79,200 to $80,274, where the 50-day EMA and a central pivot cluster are located.
Ongoing caution is reflected across derivatives markets, technical signals, and weekly price action. A recovery above the 50-week moving average would provide evidence of waning seller control, but a second consecutive close below it would likely reinforce the focus on lower support regions.
