Bitrue’s Research Institute has reported that XRP is trading 55.2% below its yearly high of $2.58 when paired against USDT, drawing attention to an oversold technical position spanning from January 2023 through November 8, 2026. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP currently reads 24, indicating a deeply oversold level according to widely-followed technical analysis metrics.
XRP lags key resistance with oversold conditions
The current 4-hour chart range for XRP fluctuates between $1.03 and $1.18. XRP is also trading below the midline of the Bollinger Band, set at $1.14. This configuration indicates lingering downward pressure despite the technical oversold signal.
Bitrue analysts observed that a price move above $1.18 could upend prevailing bearish assumptions, particularly as this would breach the AI-band top calculated by Bitrue’s artificial intelligence-based assistant. The automated analysis is designed to provide insight into price action by removing emotional biases typical in human trading.
Bitrue’s report pointed out that, “an upswing above $1.18 can quickly make short-inventory assumptions outdated,” underscoring the importance of this resistance band in shaping XRP’s short-term outlook.
To validate any potential trend reversal, the institute recommended monitoring three core indicators: increased volume on up days compared to down days, a rising on-balance volume, and a daily close above the $1.18 threshold. This trio of signals previously aligned in August 2026, corresponding with a rebound in XRP price.
Historically, Bitrue noted that in scenarios where the 14-day RSI drops below 35, XRP’s 90-day performance has tended to be positive. Out of 18 such occurrences, 70.6% resulted in higher prices after three months, compared to a baseline positive-return frequency of 53.5%.
| Signal Event | Positive 90-day Return | Baseline Positive Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| RSI < 35 | 70.6% | 53.5% |
Divergence among whales as millionaire wallets rise
The report also confirmed that wallets holding at least 1 million XRP have surged to their highest levels in 2026. However, sentiment among large holders remains divided across shorter timeframes. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator tracking capital flows, has slipped below zero with readings of -0.09 on the one-hour chart and -0.17 on the four-hour chart, suggesting increased selling pressure from major holders.
Mini dictionary: Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a technical indicator that measures the amount of money flow volume over a specified period. Negative values typically indicate that selling pressure outweighs buying pressure.
This lower sentiment and elevated selling contributed to a decrease in the threshold for entry into XRP’s largest wallet category. Bitrue’s study found that XRP is trading well below its SuperTrend price range, set at $1.27 to $1.30, and has averaged a 21% median drop before broader recovery rallies in the past.
The research concluded that, “with structure not being immediate, a test of $1 isn’t far-fetched,” signaling that further weakening is plausible before any significant rebound.
The analysts also referenced broader industry volatility, with major price swings across other digital assets in the same period.
Bitrue is a global cryptocurrency exchange recognized for using advanced algorithmic research and technical analysis tools to serve its users and the wider crypto market.
