Bitcoin has come under renewed selling pressure, with recent technical data pointing to significant risks if prices dip further. Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, has flagged a concentrated group of leveraged long positions in the $60,000 to $62,000 price range, warning that another wave of declines could trigger forced liquidations and accelerate downside momentum.
Leveraged Longs Cluster Around $60,000–$62,000
According to Glassnode, a substantial number of Bitcoin futures traders took on leveraged long positions near $60,000 to $62,000, notably during a price rally in August. This zone now represents a potential trigger area: should Bitcoin test these levels again, mass liquidations of these leveraged positions could create a surge of selling in a short period.
Clusters like these are typically areas where margin trading participants could have their positions automatically closed by exchanges if prices move against them, compounding downward price moves. While not a predetermined target, the concentration of these positions underscores the importance of monitoring this range as the current correction unfolds.
Large-scale liquidations could materialize if Bitcoin price revisits the $60,000–$62,000 band, raising risks of swift declines given the heavy positioning there.
Mini dictionary: Glassnode, a blockchain data analytics provider that tracks on-chain activity, derivatives, and exchange flows for cryptocurrencies.
On-Chain Data Reveals Widespread Losses
New analysis from CryptoQuant, an on-chain data platform, shows that Bitcoin’s roughly 24% correction from its September highs has forced many recent buyers into unrealized losses. Unrealized returns have fallen sharply, sliding from gains of about 35% in September to losses of 15%. Estimates place the average on-chain cost basis for these holders at $80,300, compared to market prices near $65,000.
Bitcoin’s large holders, or “whales”—wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC—added approximately 47,000 BTC recently. In contrast, addresses with balances between 10 and 1,000 BTC reduced their holdings by about 65,000 BTC, suggesting uneven market confidence.
Negative US spot Bitcoin ETF flows and apparent 30-day demand of about -284,000 BTC reflect ongoing distribution and tepid demand, according to CryptoQuant. The platform identifies $68,700–$76,000 as resistance, $63,000 as key support, and notes that the realized price near $53,800 marks a deeper potential floor if selling resumes.
Mini dictionary: CryptoQuant is a leading provider of real-time blockchain and market data tools for crypto traders and institutions.
| Metric | September | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Unrealized Return (%) | +35% | -15% |
| Cost Basis | $80,300 | $80,300 |
| BTC Average Price | ~$86,000 | ~$65,000 |
Elliott Wave View: Two Correction Scenarios in Play
Technical analyst Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP has highlighted two possible Elliott Wave corrections for Bitcoin: an Expanded Flat or a Zigzag pattern. In the Expanded Flat scenario, the move to $87,330 is seen as a completed corrective bounce, with the current decline marking the start of the next leg downward. Breaking below $57,870 would provide confirmation, with possible targets at $45,863 and $34,615.
Alternatively, the Zigzag interpretation sees the advance from $57,870 to $87,330 as the start of a broader corrective rally. In this scenario, a further upward move could follow before another round of selling targets as low as $34,615.
Both scenarios center on whether the previous rebound to $87,330 concluded a correction or set up for further price swings. Price dynamics near $57,870 are expected to clarify which outlook prevails.
Technical Readings Signal Oversold, But Trend Remains Negative
Bitcoin recently traded near $65,458 on the BITSTAMP exchange, down 2.49% in the latest session. Technical metrics from various indicators present a predominantly bearish view: 14 out of 26 signals are classified as Sell, five as Neutral, and seven as Buy. The moving averages indicate a strong sell, though several momentum indicators such as RSI (25), Stochastic %K (9), and CCI (-215) show oversold conditions, signaling the potential for a short-term rebound.
The MACD remains negative at -3,499 and the ADX is at 31, underscoring a persistent negative trend. Most major moving averages now sit above current prices, with the 10-day EMA at $70,783, 20-day EMA at $73,926, 50-day EMA at $77,094, and the 200-day EMA at $76,035. These could pose resistance during any attempt at recovery.
Crucial Levels: Support and Resistance
Pivot point models identify $80,274 as the central pivot level for Bitcoin. The main resistance levels are set at $84,375, $91,321, and $102,367. On the downside, support is situated at $73,329, $69,227, and deeper at $58,181. The $63,000 level also serves as an important support indicator according to CryptoQuant, while long-term downside risk extends toward the realized price at $53,800.
| Support/Resistance | Price Level |
|---|---|
| 1st Support | $73,329 |
| 2nd Support | $69,227 |
| 3rd Support | $58,181 |
| Pivot Point | $80,274 |
| 1st Resistance | $84,375 |
| 2nd Resistance | $91,321 |
| 3rd Resistance | $102,367 |
Short-Term Outlook: Volatility Ahead
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s near-term direction depends on whether bulls can defend support in the $63,000–$65,000 range. Should selling intensify and drive price toward the $60,000–$62,000 cluster, further volatility and forced selling could result. Resistance at $68,700 and the broader $70,000–$76,000 area remain key thresholds for any upward reversal.
Oversold signals may aid a short-lived recovery, but analysts suggest that stronger demand and a rebound in spot ETF flows would be necessary for a meaningful shift in the current bearish structure. For now, negative momentum and persistent distribution among holders reflect heightened downside risks.
