XRP is at risk of dropping to $0.98 if large holders continue to sell, according to a warning from market analyst Ali Charts. The analysis highlights falling numbers of major wallets combined with rising exchange balances as key factors shaping the token’s outlook.
Whale wallets decrease, exchange balances rise
XRP is currently trading at $1.29, representing a 0.87% increase in the last 24 hours. Trading volume reached $1,327,287,645 in the same period, while the token’s seven-day gain stands at just 0.09%.
In a detailed thread on X, Ali Charts described a bearish scenario based on recent on-chain trends. He noted that the number of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP dropped from 351 to 339 over the past several weeks. According to market data provider Santiment, this range translates to individual portfolios valued between $12.9 million and $129 million at today’s prices.
Some of the largest holders on the XRP Ledger appear to be reducing their exposure, with the number of wallets in the 10-100 million XRP range declining by 12 accounts in recent weeks. This reduction, Ali Charts argued, could be a sign of mounting selling pressure on the token.
Simultaneously, XRP held on exchanges increased from 11.003 billion to approximately 11.05 billion, an uptick of about 50 million tokens. On-chain data indicates that these elevated exchange balances have persisted throughout the past week, further suggesting that more XRP is available for trading and possible sale.
If this accumulation of supply continues, Ali Charts believes that selling pressure could grow. The trends in both whale wallet counts and exchange balances make up the on-chain side of the case for caution.
Mini dictionary: Santiment is a blockchain analytics platform providing detailed on-chain and social metrics for crypto assets, commonly used by analysts to track investor behavior and token movement.
| Metric | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallets (10M-100M XRP) | 351 | 339 |
| XRP on exchanges (Billion) | 11.003 | 11.05 |
| Current price ($) | 1.29 | |
Key support at $1.26, conditional target at $0.98
The technical outlook centers on a channel pattern that has defined XRP’s price since August. This channel, marked by parallel support and resistance lines, serves as a guide for potential moves in either direction.
Ali Charts identifies $1.26 as the critical lower boundary of this channel. Should the price fall below this threshold, the analyst projects an initial move toward $1.11, approximately 14% beneath current values. If selling persists, the scenario could ultimately see XRP reaching as low as $0.98—a level situated around 22% below the $1.26 mark.
The bearish case relies on three factors: a reduction in large-holder wallets, persistently high exchange balances, and a confirmed break under $1.26. While the first two have already taken shape, the crucial trigger would be a sustained move below support.
Currently, XRP remains above that critical level, trading at $1.29 and holding about 2.4% above the $1.26 line. As a result, the analyst’s projection of $0.98 remains conditional; it would be activated only if the support fails in the coming sessions.
