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Bitcoin’s (BTC) market share has surged back to 64%, prompting discussions on the potential for an imminent “major comeback” of altcoins, with their market dominance approaching a historical support level. According to Alphractal data, the market share of altcoins, excluding stablecoins, has contracted to 28.4%. This is alarmingly close to the amplitude witnessed at the onset of previous altcoin rallies. Excluding Ethereum (ETH) 
$2,437, this metric points to 18.92%, hovering above a traditionally unbreakable 18% mark. Over the years, this barrier has historically reversed Bitcoin 
$105,739 dominance, bringing altcoins into the spotlight. Currently, the Altcoin Season Index is at a mere 22 points, leaving substantial room for growth before a new altcoin season officially begins.
Approaching Historical Altcoin Dominance Regions
Alphractal’s years-long series of data highlights the pattern of intense recoveries every time altcoin dominance dipped to the 24–25.3% range. During those periods, Bitcoin and stablecoins led the market while the ‘forgotten’ altcoins initiated a rebound the moment they touched this support band.
Currently, the 28.4% level dangerously nears this range. Although thousands of new projects increase competition compared to past cycles, historical data indicates that the fundamental dynamic persists—capital flows to where it perceives potential returns. As long as investor psychology maintains the “profits in Bitcoin, excitement in altcoins” formula, these percentages could yet again act as pivotal triggers.
Excluding Ethereum and stablecoins, alternative graphs lay bare the rest of the altcoin market. Here, the 18% threshold works as a robust support. When tested, Bitcoin’s market share has historically dropped, making way for altcoins to shine. The explosive surges witnessed in 2019 and 2021 began precisely from this zone. Some altcoins offered returns exceeding 50-fold during this phase, sowing the seeds for a similar scenario as the 18.92% level faces downward pressure.
Potential Shifts if Bitcoin Dominance Declines
Bitcoin’s 64% market share evokes memories of its “hard ceiling” encountered in 2019 and 2021. During those years, BTC’s market dominance halted at this level before altcoins took the stage with price and volume surges. Recent charts by CryptoElites imply that the main player in the cryptocurrency market is once more facing resistance.
Once buying appetite in Bitcoin becomes saturated, the quest for returns naturally tilts toward high-beta assets. As gains shift from BTC to altcoins, the liquidity multiplier grows. Even projects resilient to volatility can experience “double-digit” gains in a matter of days.
The Altcoin Season Index, confined around 22 points, hints that we are merely at the beginning of a potential altcoin season. When it climbs above 75, that would mark an “official” altcoin season. Historical data suggests this process takes a few weeks, on average. However, macroeconomic climate, ETF entries, and regulatory uncertainties might contribute to volatility. Technical signals highlight readiness for a break in the support-resistance balance in favor of altcoins. Despite short-term shock sales, the overall cyclical picture remains positive on a broad scale.
In essence, a brush against the altcoin dominance support band, combined with a pressured decline in Bitcoin market share and a rising Altcoin Season Index, could herald the dawn of a new altcoin season.
