Bitcoin declined to approximately $68,500 on Friday, reaching its lowest price in 12 weeks as renewed concerns over US inflation and significant investor withdrawals pressured the market. The fall erased much of Bitcoin’s late-summer gains and intensified the ongoing correction across cryptocurrencies.
Fed rate hike expectations rise
Futures markets are now pricing in a 91.9% probability of a 0.25 percentage point Federal Reserve rate increase in December, with a smaller chance of a larger move. This shift in sentiment followed comments from several Fed officials and higher-than-expected inflation data.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that inflationary pressures are broadening, pointing to increasing services and medical costs, as well as rising demand from artificial intelligence data centers.
Goolsbee remarked that, “Are we on a path back to 2%? My feeling right now is we are not and we’ve got to deal with that,” as quoted by Reuters.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for at least a 0.25 percentage point rate hike at the December policy meeting and left the door open to a larger increase if consumer inflation stayed elevated. October’s core Consumer Price Index rose 0.3%, meeting Waller’s criterion for considering a stronger policy response.
Inflation and ETF outflows weigh on the crypto market
Producer price data released Friday showed wholesale prices climbed 0.3% in October and 6.5% from a year earlier, the fastest annual gain since 2022. These price pressures have increased the appeal of traditional, interest-bearing assets at the expense of more speculative positions such as cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum traded near $1,925 and Solana fell below $80 as selling pressure spread throughout the crypto market. Bitcoin remains about 16% above its late-June low around $59,000, but is down 21% from its autumn high near $86,000.
Another source of pressure has come from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have posted net outflows for six straight sessions. Net withdrawals reached $1.49 billion between November 5 and November 12. On Thursday, $47.7 million was withdrawn, extending the outflow streak, though the funds still hold approximately $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows.
Weakening ETF demand and forced liquidations of leveraged positions are combining to accelerate the decline, particularly when buyer interest is limited.
For crypto investors looking to keep pace with these rapid market shifts, tools like CryptoAppsy‘s customizable price alerts can provide timely updates on critical events such as ETF outflows or sudden price changes, helping users react quickly as volatility intensifies.
Technical outlook and key levels
Bitcoin’s daily chart indicates a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish near-term trend. The relative strength index now reads 25.4, well below the 30 threshold typically considered oversold, while the average directional index sits at 25.3, highlighting a firmly established trend. Despite this, the 50-day exponential moving average remains above the 200-day EMA, sustaining a longer-term bullish setup.
The first notable support level now stands near $67,650, while further downside could target the $64,000 zone if that support fails. On the upside, Bitcoin would need to reclaim $70,815 and $72,775 before confronting firmer resistance between $74,355 and $75,937.
With extreme oversold readings and persistent downside momentum, traders may see a temporary bounce, but current conditions do not indicate a clear market bottom.
Market focus shifts to upcoming economic events
Looking ahead, traders and investors will closely follow two macroeconomic events: the release of the Federal Reserve’s November 18 meeting minutes and the November 25 PCE inflation report. Both updates could affect expectations for the December interest-rate decision and drive further volatility in the crypto markets.
