As the SEC’s approval process for the spot Bitcoin ETF draws to a close, the eyes of the crypto market participants are gradually turning to the second major event of 2024, the BTC halving. The halving, which historically halves the reward given to miners on the Bitcoin network, has catalyzed a mature bull market in the past.
The Halving Process in BTC
However, high volatility has historically characterized BTC price movements in the weeks and months before the halving event. In 2016, Bitcoin experienced a significant rise but underwent a correction immediately after the halving. In 2020, deep declines occurred two months before the halving, which were associated with the COVID-19 crash.
The dynamic increases in BTC price since the beginning of 2023 could make the second scenario more likely. The crypto market is quite volatile today, and many analysts may be looking for signals of a deeper correction. The current situation on the BTC price chart shows many technical similarities with the 2019 fractal. If the previous cycle’s scenario now unfolds, Bitcoin could fall by up to 53% and retest the $23,000 level.
Price Analysis in BTC
At the end of the 2017 bull market, the BTC price reached an all-time high (ATH) just below $20,000. The subsequent bear market dragged the price down to a macro low of $3,215 in December 2018, resulting in an 84% drop. Bitcoin’s price then rose to a local peak of $13,764. The entire downward movement was found in the golden pocket region defined by the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
It turned out that this local peak initiated a deeper correction, and the first target of this correction was again the elimination of the 0.618 Fibonacci for an upward movement. Bitcoin fell to $6,477, experiencing a 53% loss. A recovery began with this standard market correction, which could last until the planned halving in May 2020. However, the collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in global markets led to another low point. Bitcoin briefly retreated to the $4,000 level again, creating a long-term double bottom pattern. However, it rebounded to around $9,000 just a few weeks later, and this price remained the same immediately before and after the May 2020 halving.
