Bitcoin lost momentum near the end of September after pulling back from a recent high above $87,000. On September 29, BTC traded around $84,000, prompting renewed attention on whether the current retreat signals a temporary pause or the early stages of a broader fourth-quarter correction.
September rally fades as $83,000 support returns to focus
Throughout September, Bitcoin staged a notable rally, reaching approximately $87,270 on September 23. However, the upward momentum faded in the final week, with prices retreating to a range between $83,000 and $84,000 ahead of month-end.
This latest price action brings the $83,000 to $85,000 level into the spotlight. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode indicates a significant supply held by long-term investors in the $84,000 to $85,000 zone. The firm also identifies the next major on-chain resistance hanging higher, near $96,700, using the mean MVRV price metric.
Mini dictionary: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key on-chain metric that compares the current market capitalization of Bitcoin with the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation, helping investors gauge overvaluation or undervaluation levels.
External market pressures and historical performance
Market sentiment has cooled as investors weighed stronger US Treasury yields, drawing money toward traditional interest-bearing assets and away from cryptocurrencies. As a result, Bitcoin approached five consecutive daily declines by the close of September.
Looking ahead, the upcoming US midterm elections in November 2026 will mark another significant event for Bitcoin traders. In past election years, fourth-quarter performance trends have generally been negative. CoinGlass data show that Bitcoin declined 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018, and 14.75% in Q4 2022 following prior midterm cycles.
| Year | Q4 Performance |
|---|---|
| 2014 | -16.70% |
| 2018 | -42.16% |
| 2022 | -14.75% |
Analyst Ali Martinez has closely examined Bitcoin’s performance during US midterm cycles, highlighting periods of both underperformance and outperformance depending on the stage of the broader market cycle. However, experts caution that historical data alone do not confirm any direct cause between election timing and Bitcoin price action, given the variety of cryptocurrency cycles and changing global market conditions across these periods.
CoinGlass data indicate Bitcoin dropped 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022 after previous US midterm years, though multiple external factors played a role each time.
On-chain metrics, derivatives, and market leverage
Bitcoin continues to trade well above the short-term holder realized price, a key on-chain cost basis metric that reflects the average price at which recently acquired coins were last transferred. Glassnode currently estimates this average at roughly $73,242. As long as BTC stays above this level, recent buyers remain in aggregate profit, reducing the incentive to sell.
Sustained pressure below this cost basis, however, may signal weakness among short-term market participants and heighten the risk of increased selling amid a softer structure. The $73,000-$74,000 band could present the next support if current spot levels falter.
The ability to hold above $83,000 is seen as key to maintaining Bitcoin’s range near $84,000 to $85,000, while any sustained drop below could put the short-term holder cohort under stress.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades emphasized derivatives market positioning as another critical factor, observing that open interest denominated in coins has declined to the lowest level in four to five months. This development suggests a lack of aggressive leverage buildup during the recent rally and little evidence that the market is overheating since recovering from lower summer levels.
Glassnode also sees minimal excess leverage in the broader crypto market at present and highlighted growing interest in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as well as a more than twofold increase in spot trading volumes from their August lows.
In summary, Bitcoin price action remains caught between support in the low $83,000 area and overhead resistance. The next directional move will depend on spot demand, leveraged positioning, and the strength of key support levels as macro and historical election factors converge in the coming months.
