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In the last 30 days, Bitcoin’s price has dropped by approximately 9.7%. Currently, BTC is trading about 30% below its all-time high. However, market experts assert that there are signs of recovery despite this downturn. Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr emphasizes that institutional investors continue to buy, long-term holders are accumulating, and selling pressure has notably decreased. He also points out that macroeconomic issues are suppressing Bitcoin’s rise. Nevertheless, he claims that a positive signal from the Federal Reserve or the Trump administration could trigger a market surge of up to 50%.
Funding Rates for Bitcoin Turn Negative
Recent data indicates that the Bitcoin 
$109,867 Funding Rate has turned negative across several major exchanges, including Binance, Bitmex, and Hyperliquid. According to Coinalyze data, the current rates are -0.0021 on Binance, -0.0055 on Bitmex, and -0.0050 on Hyperliquid. This suggests that the majority of futures traders are in short positions, while those holding long positions are receiving funding payments.
Conversely, certain exchanges like Bybit, Huobi, Kraken, OKX, and Woo X have seen positive funding rates. Rates are +0.0023 on Bybit, +0.0086 on Huobi, +0.0022 on Kraken, +0.0017 on OKX, and +0.0005 on Woo X. This indicates that some investors are maintaining a bullish outlook.
Adler Jr mentions that such imbalances have occurred five times in Bitcoin’s cycles before. He highlights that in four of these instances, Bitcoin prices saw significant increases, noting only one instance of a decrease. This reality suggests that a new rally may be on the horizon in the long term.
Institutional Buying Increases as Selling Pressure Decreases
Known for his optimistic perspective, Adler Jr reports that large institutional investors are ramping up their Bitcoin accumulation. The decline in selling pressure on the spot market supports this view, as experienced investors seem to be accumulating BTC rather than selling.
Basing his analysis on on-chain data, Adler posits that the prolonged “overheating” phase in the market has ended, and a period of stabilization has begun. These developments suggest decreased volatility and a period where investors are cautiously positioning themselves with bullish expectations. With renewed investor interest, Bitcoin is predicted to hold stronger support levels moving forward. Increased capital towards ETFs could also open the door to new price peaks.
Despite the positive technical indicators in the market, Adler Jr expresses that macroeconomic uncertainties continue to pose a significant threat. He emphasizes that the U.S. economy’s battle with inflation, interest rate expectations, and global political developments could hinder Bitcoin’s ascent. However, he believes that once these uncertainties resolve, the market could recover swiftly.
An important point raised by Adler is regarding potential political developments. He indicates that if the Fed signals a rate cut or if the Trump administration takes a positive stance towards cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s price could potentially soar to $130,000. Furthermore, he highlights that rising interest in spot ETFs could trigger a new influx of capital, leading to upward momentum.
According to Adler, if the right conditions are established, the market could gain momentum quickly. He suggests that only a few strong catalysts are needed for Bitcoin to move more robustly in the remaining part of the year.
