Crypto investors have been in the midst of a dream they don’t want to wake up from for several weeks, and short-term optimism is high. The upcoming ETF approval, markets moving away from FUD, optimism about interest rate cuts, the quiet shelving of Binance‘s issue by the US, and many other factors are turning this period into a dream. However, crypto investors have been burned chasing such dreams before, and warning bells are ringing.
Bitcoin Price Could Fall
It’s nice to talk about and see things that improve investor motivation and keep spirits high. Investors are in good spirits, but there’s also the risk of unpleasant surprises. How much one has experienced this depends on market experience. However, one experienced individual has issued an important warning.
Popular crypto commentator CryptoCon warned in an analysis shared on January 1st that the $30,000 price point is not far behind. This disheartening statement was not baseless and was based on DMI data.
The DMI data pointed out by CryptoCon has reached a region that signals a downward alarm.
“I was bullish on Bitcoin throughout 2023, but the data shows us that it’s time to cool down before starting 2024. There’s a battle between those who believe it will be different this time and those who trust reliable long-term data. I know which side I’m on!”
If historical DMI data does not mislead him, he can proudly claim he was right. In the opposite scenario, he will likely be quieter until these comments are forgotten. For those wondering what DMI is, it stands for Directional Movement Index and was developed by Welles Wilder in 1978. It measures trend strength and is closely monitored by experts.
Cryptocurrencies and Historical Data
The mid-2019 DMI reading was reminiscent of today, and a 16-month decline period began at that time. Clearly, the situation today is very different from the COVID era (no need to list everything, but ETFs, interest rate cuts, halving, etc.), so CryptoCon predicts a 30% pullback, although he believes it won’t be as bad this time.
“The DMI is moving from an overheated zone to a 30% correction, bringing us to prices around $30,000. And this percentage is much less than previous examples! The data structure is similar to the 2019 case, with a double top in red. However, I believe the drop will be much less than 50% and will not last as long.”
