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After the $1,950 attack in April, a period of sustained decline began in the ETH price. Previous attempts to rise have ended in failure. On the other hand, the sideways movement in the BTC front continues to be frustrating for altcoins. So, can the Ethereum price initiate a new attack against BTC?
Ethereum (ETH) Analysis
Readings on the weekly chart indicate a downward trend for the ETH price. The main reason for this is the price deviation and the loss of the $1,950 region. Closures below the resistance area usually increase the downward momentum. The failure to permanently surpass the resistance at the $1,950 region for ETH indicates that the recent recovery was fake.
The price confirmed the resistance zone again at the beginning of July. If the decline continues, there is a long-term rising support line for the price at $1,450. This line has been in place since June 2022. A possible test of the support base would mean a loss of about 20% for ETH from its current price.
The whale that has sent $74 million worth of ETH to Coinbase exchange in the last 2 weeks also emphasizes that the ongoing decline concerns not only individual investors.
Will Ethereum (ETH) Price Rise?
There won’t be a significant gain against the dollar, but we can see that the price of ETH is rising against the BTC pair. The price of ETH/BTC is trading within a decreasing wedge since September 2022. A decreasing wedge is considered a bullish formation, which often leads to breakouts.
Secondly, the price has reclaimed the 0.618 Fib retracement support level after previously dropping below it. The recovery coincided with a bounce on the wedge support line. Similar to considering the deviation above the resistance area as a decline, a deviation below the Fib level is considered an increase.
If ETH does what is expected and starts its rally against BTC, we can see a movement towards the 0.076 BTC region. The bullish outlook in the BTC pair suggests that if the price of Bitcoin does not suffer a major loss, a rise to the $2,300 levels is possible.
On the other hand, a close below the wedge support line could push the ETH price down to the 0.05 region against BTC.
