Michael Saylor posted Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchase chart to X on Sunday, July 26, with the caption, “We’re gonna need another color.” This marked the fifth such chart shared since the company’s last disclosed Bitcoin acquisition on June 22. For the first time in two years, Strategy has gone four weeks without adding any Bitcoin to its holdings.
Saylor’s X activity loses predictive power
For years, Saylor’s habit of posting Bitcoin charts late on Sundays was seen as a reliable indicator that Strategy would announce a new Bitcoin tranche in an 8-K filing the next day. However, this pattern has shown signs of weakening. On June 28, he shared, “We’re gonna need more charts,” but instead of signalling a new purchase, it introduced a revised capital framework. Similarly, a July 5 post preceded the company’s largest ever Bitcoin sale rather than a buy.
In November, Saylor introduced the concept of “green dots” a day before Strategy revealed a $1.44 billion reserve and a purchase of 130 BTC. On January 4, he hinted at the possibility of buying either coins or cash, referencing “Orange or Green?” but provided no further context.
Saylor’s recent post, which drew over 11,000 likes and 1,400 replies on X, has remained cryptic, as he gave no further explanation and Strategy did not report any new transactions.
Saylor has continued to draw engagement with hints and charts on X, but the company has not followed these with Bitcoin purchases, leaving many to question whether the posts still carry meaningful signals for new acquisitions.
MSTR’s market value relative to its Bitcoin adjusted market net asset value (mNAV) fell below 1 on June 27. As a result, MSTR has started to trade at a discount to the Bitcoin it holds. This means that selling new shares to buy more Bitcoin would now reduce, rather than increase, the Bitcoin per share. Meanwhile, preferred stock dividends with STRC have risen to a 12% rate and must be paid in cash.
Capital framework prioritizes cash reserves
Strategy now holds 843,775 BTC across 113 separate purchases, acquired at an average cost of $75,476 per coin, totaling $63.69 billion. With Bitcoin trading at $65,283.96, the portfolio’s estimated value stands at $55.1 billion, leaving the company approximately $8.6 billion underwater on its position.
In late June, Strategy adopted a revised capital plan, launching a $1 billion buyback for digital credit securities, a $1 billion buyback for common stock, and authorizing up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales. On July 23, Strategy updated its mNAV calculation method and stated that earlier figures were no longer comparable. MSTR shares closed at $91.67 on Friday, down from $94.85 a week earlier.
In line with these technical market shifts, platforms like 1stepSwap are expanding access to real-world assets on the blockchain, enabling users to directly buy and sell major U.S. stocks, as well as commodities like gold and silver, through their wallets while always seeking the most advantageous rates in real-time.
Focus shifts to cash buildup and sustainability
Strategy has continued to raise capital but is currently reserving the proceeds rather than deploying them. Between July 13 and July 19, it sold 2,732,318 MSTR shares for net proceeds of $263.5 million, with no Bitcoin purchased during the period. The SEC filing dated July 20 recorded the new dollar reserve at $3.225 billion, now covering roughly 1.8 years of dividend payments.
The company maintains the capacity to raise up to $23.53 billion more through at-the-market programs but has chosen to pause Bitcoin acquisitions for now. This decision came after warnings in June from researchers such as CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno, who recommended halting Bitcoin purchases to rebuild cash reserves. According to Moreno, reserves had fallen about 38% since early 2026, while annual dividend obligations had quadrupled to $1.2 billion. Dividend coverage dropped from more than seven years to around 14 months.
A capital allocation model based on timing rather than simply buying whenever funds are available is seen by some analysts as crucial to prevent overexposure during market peaks and to ensure long-term sustainability.
The company’s next major disclosure is set for Thursday, July 30, when Strategy will announce its second-quarter results after the U.S. market closes.
