Bitcoin is currently trading near $76,300, yet a long-term analysis from Ned Davis Research suggests the cryptocurrency could reach $170,000 by 2030 and $230,000 by 2035. These projections, delivered by Ned Davis Research chief alternatives strategist John LaForge, arrive during a period of heightened volatility for digital assets and renewed investor uncertainty.
Valuation Approaches Highlight Network Growth and Demand
LaForge described seven key methods that investors use to value Bitcoin: network adoption metrics, comparisons to gold, money-supply expansion, production costs, role in portfolios as a risk asset, adoption cycles, and the widely cited stock-to-flow model. Among these, network adoption stands out by focusing directly on Bitcoin’s user base and engagement. Key indicators include the number of wallet holders, participation through exchange-traded funds, wallet addresses with balances, and daily activity on the network.
Mini dictionary: Ned Davis Research, an investment research company based in the United States, is recognized for providing data-driven market analysis across asset classes for institutional investors.
This approach centers demand as the critical element in Bitcoin valuation. Rather than assuming growth is driven by the cryptocurrency’s built-in supply constraints, it emphasizes the importance of increasing participation and real-world use.
LaForge expressed skepticism toward the stock-to-flow model, which relies mainly on Bitcoin’s fixed supply and scheduled halvings. According to his analysis, user demand has so far been insufficient to sustain the more optimistic projections suggested by stock-to-flow adherents.
Production Costs and ETF Flows Add Short-Term Pressures
Production cost is currently a focal point in the discussion around Bitcoin’s value. According to a CoinShares mining report, publicly listed miners saw an average ex-tax cash production cost of about $75,500 per Bitcoin in the second quarter—almost identical to current spot prices.
Although not an absolute price floor, production costs serve as a reference point for market health. Extended trading below these levels may strain mining companies financially, sometimes pushing them to draw down reserves or cut back on operations.
This issue has become particularly relevant after Bitcoin tested the $75,000 mark, highlighting the alignment of market and mining economics at current price levels.
| Metric | Current Value | 2030 Target | 2035 Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Price | $76,300 | $170,000 | $230,000 |
| Production Cost (Q2) | $75,500 | – | – |
Recent fund flows illustrate investor caution. On September 15, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reported $450 million in net withdrawals—their largest single-day outflow since June—followed by approximately $296 million in outflows the next day. This reversal comes after a strong August performance, when Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.52 billion in net inflows.
These shifting flows accompany broader uncertainties in the crypto market, as investors react to both regulatory developments and price volatility.
Ned Davis Research’s approach emphasizes that Bitcoin’s ascent to targets like $170,000 or $230,000 is not predetermined by its limited supply, but will instead depend on continued adoption and growing demand.
Long-Term Targets Depend on Market Participation
With a current price near $76,300, Bitcoin would need to rise by about 123% to meet the $170,000 projection and approximately 201% to reach $230,000 over the next decade. While these targets are not guarantees, Ned Davis Research’s framework encourages investors to watch quantifiable metrics—such as user adoption rates and network participation—when assessing whether Bitcoin is on track for such future highs.
The study highlights that as Bitcoin’s finite supply is already a given, the critical factor for reaching ambitious price targets will remain how widely and actively the asset is used and integrated within financial markets and investor portfolios.
