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QCP Capital‘s latest analysis indicates a Bitcoin (BTC) bull run in September 2024 and a potential market revival. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $64,362 with a slight decline and a market value of $1.26 trillion. QCP Capital’s analysis points to a price consolidation period over the next two months before significant bullish activity.
Bitcoin’s Price Expected to Move Within a Narrow Range for a While
According to QCP Capital, Bitcoin’s price will remain trapped in a specific range in the short term. There is noticeable selling activity in Bitcoin call options expiring next month, indicating a bearish trend in the near future. Despite this, QCP Capital predicts significant bullish movement by the end of the year. The company noted aggressive buying in call options from September to December, suggesting investors could expect significant market activity post-summer, particularly around the US elections.
Moreover, the report highlights ongoing selling pressure on Bitcoin miners due to high breakeven costs following the recent Bitcoin block reward halving event. This pressure is expected to continue and potentially delay significant price improvement for the largest cryptocurrency. As a result, miners’ BTC holdings have dropped to the lowest levels in 14 years, with reserves falling by over 5,000 BTC since the beginning of the year.
Adding to market instability are reports of substantial Bitcoin sales by the German government. Recently, the German government sold 3,000 BTC and plans to sell 47,000 BTC in the near future. Unsurprisingly, such market entries could further pressure Bitcoin’s price. Additionally, there is a continuous outflow in the ETF market, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording over $500 million in outflows last week. This trend indicates a lack of confidence among institutional investors expecting a stronger bullish trend for Bitcoin.
There Are Also Bullish Developments
Despite the prevailing bearish trend, there are a few positive developments that could support Bitcoin’s outlook. Notably, MicroStrategy provided strong institutional support by making a significant purchase of 11,931 BTC worth approximately $800 million.
Additionally, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes raised expectations by presenting an optimistic macroeconomic outlook, suggesting that the current Japanese banking crisis could be a catalyst for a Bitcoin bull run.
