Stellar‘s mainnet asset XLM, a strong competitor to XRP, experiences a sharp downturn in recent weeks. The altcoin currently trades at $0.249, reflecting a 7% decline over the past 24 hours. Since mid-May, XLM has lost over a quarter of its total market value, trending within a falling wedge pattern. The price has dipped below the crucial support level of $0.26, pressured by increasing geopolitical uncertainties and market-wide apprehension.
Shifting Social Media Sentiment
Recent data suggests that negative sentiment within the XLM community is gradually being replaced by positive anticipation. According to Santiment, the total weighted sentiment for XLM improved from -0.775 to +0.192 this week. Particularly on June 17th, positive social media messages reached 11.31, significantly surpassing the 0.81 negative messages. These figures indicate a notable optimism in social media discussions regarding the altcoin.
A similar recovery signal is apparent in the derivative markets as well. Weighted funding rates related to open XLM positions exhibited a remarkable improvement throughout last week. On May 13th, funding rates hovered at around -0.378% and have now reached +0.0029%. This positive trend is driven by developments like PayPal’s integration of the PYUSD stablecoin into the Stellar network to provide cost-effective cross-border payments for SMEs and potential collaborations with EasyA. However, these positive developments have not yet translated into a significant upward movement in the XLM coin’s price.
Key Factors and Risks Influencing Price Surge
One of the major hurdles for an XLM price increase is liquidity. The current liquidity heatmap shows that the altcoin’s price is currently positioned at the lower end of the liquidity pool. Further downward breaking of the price could lead to a long squeeze, pulling XLM to deeper low levels. This technical risk poses a significant threat to the short-term future of the altcoin.
On the other hand, there is potential for an improvement in overall market conditions. Particularly, tensions in the geopolitical landscape, such as between Iran and Israel, might ease following the ultimatum given by Donald Trump to Iran. If the geopolitical tension in the Middle East diminishes, XLM might find support from the liquidity cluster around $0.25, offering a chance for price recovery.