Crypto market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has outlined potential targets for XRP based on historical price cycles, sharing his methodology in a recent post on X. Drawing from XRP’s previous three major bull runs, he calculated both arithmetic and geometric averages to estimate possible outcomes for the current expansion phase.
Review of XRP’s bull cycles
In his analysis, EGRAG CRYPTO reported that XRP gained 2,405% in its first major cycle, recorded a 1,002% increase in the second, and achieved a 1,250% rise in the third. From these figures, he determined an arithmetic average return of approximately 1,552% and a geometric mean of about 1,444%.
The analyst stated that these calculations were produced through a straightforward mathematical approach without speculative assumptions or arbitrary targets. His original post read, “No fantasy numbers. No random targets. Just Math.”
EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted that the arithmetic average of historical cycles is around 1,552%, while the geometric mean stands at about 1,444%. He emphasized that his projections are based on documented price history and mathematical calculations.
EGRAG CRYPTO is known on X for his technical analysis focused on XRP. He frequently uses historical precedents and mathematical frameworks to inform his outlook, rather than relying solely on sentiment or speculation.
Mini dictionary: EGRAG CRYPTO is an independent crypto analyst primarily active on X, specializing in technical analysis of XRP and known for publishing detailed historical cycle comparisons using chart patterns and statistical averages.
| Cycle | XRP Price Increase |
|---|---|
| Cycle 1 | +2,405% |
| Cycle 2 | +1,002% |
| Cycle 3 | +1,250% |
| Arithmetic Average | ~1,552% |
| Geometric Mean | ~1,444% |
Assessment from industry commentators
A co-analyst known as Moon Lambo commented on EGRAG CRYPTO’s methodology, describing it as a reasonable approach to projecting potential future price movements for XRP. He argued that relying on percentage gains established in earlier cycles is a rational and widely accepted practice in crypto analysis.
Referring to the 1,444% geometric mean, Moon Lambo estimated that XRP could reach $14.77 if this historical trend continues. The 1,250% figure from Cycle 3 implies a price around $12.55 should similar growth occur in the current expansion.
Moon Lambo added context by stating, “This stuff is not crazy. This has happened in crypto so many times.” He expressed confidence that with sufficient time and strong fundamentals, XRP could see further appreciation, though he acknowledged the inherent risks of the market.
Possibility of exceeding previous cycles
Moon Lambo also raised the question of whether the current cycle could outperform historical averages, potentially resulting in even higher price targets. However, he refrained from making explicit predictions. “I don’t make price predictions. I admit I don’t know,” he said during his commentary.
He maintained that the long-term outlook for XRP remains positive if the market continues to recognize the project’s underlying fundamentals, while also reminding audiences that losses are possible. “I could be wrong, and XRP might go to zero. I just don’t think I’m wrong,” he reflected.
Technical analysis and calculation methods
EGRAG CRYPTO explained the difference between the two averaging methods used in his projections. The arithmetic average, which treats each cycle’s gain equally, tends to produce a higher target. The geometric mean, by accounting for compounding across cycles, is viewed as the more conservative estimate.
He clarified, “The geometric mean measures the average compounded or multiplicative expansion across those three cycles. I am with the Geometric Mean.” With this calculation, the projected XRP price stands at $14.77; the arithmetic average suggests an even higher target, but both are supported by data from earlier expansions.
