Steph Is Crypto, a well-followed market analyst known for his technical insight, has expressed caution about XRP’s near-term outlook. On the daily chart, Steph pointed to a technical indicator forming a MACD death cross, drawing focus to two specific price levels he says are critical for the asset’s next move.
MACD death cross suggests short-term weakness
Steph explained that a MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) death cross occurs when the blue signal line crosses below the red line on the chart, typically viewed as a bearish momentum signal. According to his analysis, similar patterns in the past have preceded notable declines in XRP value.
Following a MACD death cross in December 2024, XRP fell 23%. Another signal in January 2025 came before a much deeper, nearly 50% drop. Steph also referenced other instances marked by 20%, 44%, and 60% drawdowns after the same technical signal appeared. He described the current signal as significant enough that all XRP holders should pay attention.
This MACD death cross is a very meaningful signal which you basically can’t ignore if you’re invested in XRP. Whenever this formation has appeared before, it’s been followed by sharp corrections.
Mini dictionary: MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a popular technical analysis tool that measures momentum by comparing moving averages of a security’s price. A “death cross” signals potential for significant downside movement.
Key price levels: $1.30 support, $1.40 resistance
According to Steph, XRP’s fate in the near term will depend on how it interacts with two major price points. Using trading volume profiles since February 2026, he identified $1.40 as the point of control, the level where the highest volume changed hands. He considers a break above $1.40 “the absolute confirmation” of renewed bullish momentum but warned that XRP is now at risk of losing this area.
He highlighted $1.30 as a crucial support level. Historically, $1.30 has served as strong support, with frequent bounces from this area. Steph noted that if XRP can hold above $1.30 on a weekly closing basis, the setup for a recovery remains viable. However, a close below that threshold may delay bullish progress further.
| Price Level | Role | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| $1.40 | Point of Control / Resistance | Breakout confirms bullish move |
| $1.30 | Support | Hold keeps setup intact; close below signals further downside |
The price action around $1.30 and $1.40 will decide whether XRP moves toward its long-term target or enters a more extended consolidation.
Weekly outlook remains optimistic
Despite a cautious short-term view, Steph separates this analysis from his longer-range perspective. On the weekly timeframe, he observed that XRP recently broke out from a large falling wedge formation that capped the asset since its $3.65 peak in July 2025. He characterized the breakout as a strong bullish sign that could point back to previous highs.
Steph maintains that XRP could set a new all-time high in 2026, assuming key support levels such as $1.30 continue to hold. He believes the overall structure of the weekly chart remains favorable for an eventual upward move if short-term volatility does not cause a significant breakdown.
Steph Is Crypto, widely recognized in the digital asset trading community for his chart-based forecasts, states that while the current setup signals caution, his longer-term target near $3.65 remains in view if the critical levels are respected.
Outlook for XRP holders
In summary, Steph views the appearance of a MACD death cross as a reason for near-term vigilance, particularly as XRP approaches the $1.30 and $1.40 price bands. Whether the asset can defend these pivotal levels will determine if the next significant move is toward recovery or prolonged consolidation.
