XRP ended October 2026 with a monthly decline of 16%, marking its fourth worst October in the past fourteen years. This result follows only the sharp drop in October 2013 at 44.8%, October 2018’s loss of 22.9%, and the 16.6% setback in October 2024.
Historical trends in October and November
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto reviewed fourteen years of XRP price data to place October 2026’s performance in a broader context. Examining records from 2013 through 2025, he found that out of thirteen completed October-November cycles, November losses followed October declines seven times, while November gains occurred six times. This nearly even split suggests a slight historical tendency toward additional weakness in November after a red October.
October 2026’s negative close therefore positions XRP in a statistically ambiguous spot as the token enters November. Historical data do not provide a clear majority outcome or strong predictive bias for the coming month.
After compiling price history since 2013, Egrag Crypto found October 2026 finished as XRP’s fourth worst October on record, trailing only the sharp selloffs in 2013, 2018, and 2024. His analysis showed that Novembers following a red October had yielded gains about as often as losses, with history offering “one big question” for the weeks ahead.
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Average and median November returns
Measuring actual November returns, Egrag Crypto identified a notable disparity between the average and median. While the median return for November stands at a loss of 9.1%, the average is pushed much higher to a gain of 78.3%. This gap is due to several extraordinary outlier performances: in 2013, XRP surged 489.1% in November; in 2014, 148.2%; in 2020, 179.2%; and in 2024, 282.9%. These outliers significantly inflate the mean, while most years posted far more modest results.
As a result, typical November performance has skewed negative, but a handful of exceptional events have distorted the average upward. This pattern continues to complicate reliable forecasting for the month ahead.
Patterns emerging from “red Octobers”
Egrag Crypto also pointed out that three of XRP’s most severe October declines were followed by some of the strongest rallies in November. The 44.8% fall in October 2013 preceded a nearly 500% November gain. Similarly, October 2020’s drop led into a surge of 179.2%, and October 2024’s 16.6% loss was followed by an outsized 282.9% rally the next month. While this correlation appears notable, Egrag Crypto refrained from using it to predict direct outcomes for November 2026, citing the complexity and unpredictability of the broader market context.
Analyst’s November 2026 forecast
Egrag Crypto divided his November 2026 outlook into two distinct phases. For the first half, he expects continued weakness, consolidation, and a final shakeout. In the latter half of November, he projects a strong bullish reversal and the potential for explosive momentum. Summarizing his outlook, he wrote: “weak first half, strong second half.”
Egrag Crypto emphasized his commitment to data-driven analysis, noting, “men lie, women lie, charts and numbers don’t lie.” He encouraged market participants to rely on historical frameworks rather than emotional forecasts.
Whether November 2026 aligns with prior outliers or the historical majority remains to be seen, but traders now have a comprehensive data history to reference for decision-making.
