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The launch of the United States’ first spot Bitcoin ETF is expected to take place this month. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considered likely to give the green light to 12 ETFs awaiting approval by January 10. Despite high expectations from VanEck’s advisor Gabor Gurbacs, there is a notable statement suggesting that the ETFs’ launch could lead to disappointment in Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term performance.
Spot Gold ETFs vs Spot Bitcoin ETFs
According to VanEck’s advisor Gabor Gurbacs, the release of spot Bitcoin ETFs will not have much impact on Bitcoin in the short term. Nevertheless, Gurbacs emphasized that the launch of ETFs could attract trillions of dollars to the cryptocurrency market.
On January 1, Gurbacs shared from his personal X account that the initial impact of a spot Bitcoin ETF has been largely exaggerated and predicted that it might only see about $100 million in net inflows from large institutional investors after its release. However, Gurbacs pointed to the increase in gold prices following the launch of spot gold ETFs and expressed optimism about the long-term impact of ETFs on Bitcoin.
It is well known that on November 18, 2004, the global investment advisory firm State Street launched the first spot gold ETF. Gurbacs noted that in the eight years following the launch, the price of gold increased more than fourfold, from $400 to $1,800. This significant rise also led to the total market value of gold increasing from $2 trillion to $10 trillion during the same period. Bitcoin currently sits on a market value of over $834 billion, which corresponds to approximately 41% of gold’s market value in 2004.
Gurbacs believes that in the current environment of high expectations for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, Bitcoin’s price trajectory could follow in the footsteps of gold. However, he added that due to Bitcoin’s limited supply and events like block reward halving that increase scarcity, this trajectory could be followed much more quickly. One of the most significant benefits of a spot Bitcoin ETF comes from its ability to legitimize and endorse Bitcoin in the eyes of institutional investors and nation-states, he added.
The Real Impact of ETFs on Bitcoin Will Be Seen in the Long Run
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart agree with Gurbacs. Seyffart highlighted that many people focus on short-term data points like daily ETF inflows, but the real focus should be on the long-term effect of such a product.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $42,525, up 1.1% in the last 24 hours. While many market commentators argue that a significant and sustained price increase will follow the expected ETF approval, others believe that the approval will trigger a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, leading to a sharp price drop.
