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Bitcoin price is struggling to reclaim the $68,000 mark at the time of writing, yet selling persists. Despite intense profit-taking, individual investors’ purchases suggest the peak of the bull market may not have been reached. However, due to profitability reaching a 3-year high, the sales are likely to pose a challenge for the bulls.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Despite profit-taking, the BTC price has managed to hold above $64,500. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital commented on the current price movement, suggesting that as the halving approaches, investors’ expectations of a downturn could increase, citing examples from previous cycles.
According to him, the BTC price is nearing a danger zone. The halving expected on April 20th has triggered significant declines within 14-28 days in previous cycles. In 2020, the price dropped by 20% during this period, while in 2016, BTC saw a 40% decrease.
Spot Bitcoin ETF entries are slowing but continuing, and investors have been keeping an eye on this as we have mentioned for weeks. On the other hand, there are only hours left until the Fed meeting. If Powell’s statements on Wednesday are overly hawkish, expectations for a 2024 interest rate cut could be revised downwards. Moreover, the Fed members’ 2-year interest rate forecast could also trigger volatility in cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin bounced off the 20-day EMA ($65,830) on March 17th, showing everyone that buyers are still in the game. The resistance at the breaking point of the rising channel is dangerous due to high profitability, and closures below the 20-day EMA could trigger sales down to $59,000.
If the bulls return to the channel and stay there, the target will be set again at $73,777, and if successful, the next target will be $80,000.
Ethereum (ETH) Analysis
ETH price unfortunately fell below the 20-day EMA ($3,616), which happened despite upcoming ETF decisions that could trigger excitement. If the $3,616 region can be reclaimed, a new rise to $4,093 could begin.
In the opposite scenario, ETH could target $3,400 and even below at $3,200. In the event of extreme selling, a drop to $3,077 could occur. This Fed meeting will be a significant assessment of the Fed’s front-loaded interest rate hikes as we approach the November elections. Powell’s statements could pave the way for a ceiling or floor for BTC and ETH.
