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As American poet and novelist Charles Bukowski noted, the majority’s emotions often stray from the path of wisdom, a phenomenon that extends to the cryptocurrency market. According to data provided by Santiment, the current investor sentiment surrounding Bitcoin (BTC) indicates that the ongoing sales in BTC are potentially nearing exhaustion, signaling an end to the market downturn.
Expectations of a Downturn Increase
The blockchain analytics platform Santiment’s data shows that historical trends tend to move contrary to the masses’ expectations. It has been observed that since the end of March, there has been a decline in discussions related to “bull market” or “bull cycle” on various crypto social media platforms, while talks of “bear market” or “bear cycle” have seen a steady increase.
Using the Social Trends indicator that tracks discussions on popular social media platforms like Telegram, Reddit, X, and 4Chan, Santiment shows a significant change in investor sentiment within the crypto world. Notably, discussions about the end of the bull market and the emergence of a bear market have increased in line with Bitcoin’s 16% drop from its all-time high of $73,750 on March 14.
Moreover, the decrease in phrases like “buy the dip,” which in crypto slang expresses hope for a quick market recovery and ongoing bull run, indicates a decline in hope among individual investors. Historical data suggests that a decrease in “buy the dip” discussions often heralds the end of downtrends.
On the other hand, various factors such as reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and tax payment periods in the US have contributed to Bitcoin’s loss of about 15% this month. Despite dropping below $60,000 at one point, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience by recovering and surpassing the $61,000 threshold.
Approaching Bitcoin’s 4th Block Reward Halving
The crypto world is currently preparing for Bitcoin’s 4th block reward halving, expected to occur on April 19 or 20. Analysts warn that miners, who currently receive a reward of 6.25 BTC per block, will face tougher declines as the reward amount drops to 3.125 BTC after the halving.
However, the general consensus among analysts is that Bitcoin will make a strong upward surge in the long term following the block reward halving.
