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Altcoins for the eagerly awaited bull run is currently a topic of interest for every investor. While it is difficult to find a definitive answer, historical trends offer some clues. Working Channel Money YouTube channel shared its expectations for altcoins for 2024-2025 and predictions on when the ultimate peak might be seen.
546-Day Factor
Working Channel Money YouTube channel noted that in both previous cycles, altcoins peaked exactly 546 days after Bitcoin’s block reward halving. If this pattern repeats, the next peak for altcoins could be seen in October 2025. This model was observed in the 2016 and 2020 cycles and a similar trend is predicted for 2025.
However, the timing of when altcoins will reach their peak can be influenced by various factors. The acceleration of the cycle and macroeconomic effects could lead to an earlier peak. Although basing predictions on just two data points may seem simplistic, it indicates that we are still in the early stages of the current altcoin cycle. Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance over the market is increasing, and despite the rise in trading volume over the past 24 hours, altcoins continue to remain in the background. Moreover, although recent sales have been observed, the overall market value is hovering around 2.45 trillion dollars with neutral sentiment.
At Least 60% Increase on the Table
Working Channel Money examined the total market value of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and highlighted that it is about 60% below the all-time high. Historically, when this value reaches an all-time high, altcoins tend to rise significantly. Considering that approximately two months have passed since the block reward halving, a 60% increase in the total market value of altcoins excluding Bitcoin is needed to reach the peak, followed by the peak explosion within the 546-day window.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum excluding altcoins are about 75% below their all-time high market value. This indicates significant room for a strong rise. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $66,800 with minimal fluctuations. The altcoin market has shown limited fluctuations recently, but significant upward movements are expected in the Euphoria phase with potential daily gains of 10-90%.
While the models observed in previous cycles provide a framework for identifying potential future trends, investors should be cautious and consider other factors that could affect the market. For now, the increasing dominance of Bitcoin over the market and current trading volumes indicate a complex and dynamic market environment.
