Leading ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that the total assets of Bitcoin 
$81,216 ETFs will exceed $90 billion and will surpass Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin holdings by mid-December. This projection highlights the rapid growth of these funds, demonstrating their increasing significance in the market.
Bitcoin ETFs Positioning Themselves
Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. are on track to become the largest holders of Bitcoin, potentially eclipsing Nakamoto, who is estimated to hold around 1.1 million BTC. Currently, these funds have reached approximately 1.04 million BTC, representing about 95% of Nakamoto’s estimated holdings. Balchunas notes that the funds are expected to surpass Nakamoto by Thanksgiving.
ETFs are on the path to surpassing Satoshi as the largest holder. We’re 95% completed. The countdown has begun. Thanksgiving seems like a good target date.
— Eric Balchunas, ETF Analyst
Other Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart reported that U.S. spot ETFs reached $1.1 billion yesterday, marking the second-largest inflow day for the group since its launch, following a $1.4 billion influx on November 7.
The official inflow figure for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was $1.1 billion yesterday, marking the second-largest flow day since launch.
— James Seyffart, Bloomberg Analyst
Significant Accumulation and Investor Interest
By November 12, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $1.1 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $756 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC garnered $135 million. The following day, IBIT surpassed $1 billion in trading volume within just 25 minutes, surpassing popular ETFs like Invesco QQQ and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.
At the end of October, U.S. Bitcoin funds held a total of 983,334 BTC, having purchased over 56,000 BTC in the last two weeks. However, prior to the U.S. elections in November, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $541 million—the second-largest outflow in history. Despite this, following Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections, $3.4 billion was invested in Bitcoin ETFs within four days.
According to Balchunas, spot ETFs are accumulating Bitcoin at a rate of approximately 17,000 BTC per week. If this pace continues, these funds could surpass Satoshi’s estimated Bitcoin holdings by December 2024.
The rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs is supported by market dynamics and the interest of large investors. These developments are viewed as indicators of Bitcoin’s adoption by institutional investors. For investors, this trend may signify increasing demand for Bitcoin and recognition of ETFs as an effective investment vehicle.
