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Ethereum (ETH) 
$2,636 currently holds a significant position within the cryptocurrency market. As the ETH/USD pair hovers around $2,600, the rise of short positions and an upcoming major network upgrade may lead to sharp price fluctuations. While Bitcoin 
$110,916 has seen a 100% rise since early 2024, Ethereum has only managed a modest 3.5% increase, prompting a reevaluation of investor expectations towards ETH.
Impact of Record High Short Positions on the Market
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) data indicates that short positions in Ethereum futures have reached record levels. With a total of 11,342 contracts, these positions reflect a pessimistic outlook from hedge funds regarding Ethereum. The 500% increase in short positions since November 2024 signals prevailing negative market expectations for ETH.
Conversely, on-chain data tells a different story. On February 7, Ethereum wallets recorded an influx of 330,705 ETH (approximately $886 million). This influx has pushed the total balance of long-term investors accumulating Ethereum to a peak of 19.24 million ETH.
Despite a decline in prices throughout 2025, this balance shows a 20.55% increase, indicating that investors see these levels as opportunities. Historical data suggests that such accumulation waves typically lead to price rallies. For instance, a similar accumulation in February 2023 resulted in a 35% price increase within two months.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Could the Pectra Upgrade Be an Opportunity?
The Ethereum network is preparing for a pivotal moment with the anticipated Pectra upgrade, set for April 2025. This upgrade will combine the ideas of “Prague” and “Electra,” introducing eight significant changes to the network.
Among the highlighted improvements is EIP-7702, which aims to enhance wallet functionalities and make account abstraction mechanisms more functional. Additionally, EIP-7251 seeks to increase the current staking limit from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, thereby boosting validator activity. These changes aim to provide greater liquidity and participation in the Ethereum network.
Initial tests will commence on February 26 on the Holesky testnet, continuing on March 5 on the Sepolia testnet. As investors closely monitor this process, the successful implementation of the upgrade could significantly support Ethereum’s price. However, technical indicators currently suggest that downward pressure may persist.
Should Ethereum’s price drop below critical support levels of $2,440 and $2,320, the potential for a further decline to $1,905 cannot be ignored.
