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Despite stagnation in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin 
$111,035 continues to show positive signs, even amidst short-term fluctuations. According to notable analyst Benjamin Cowen, the current price behavior does not harm the market structure; instead, it lays the groundwork for long-term growth. As we enter the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin’s strength keeps investors hopeful, but the price levels it holds will be crucial in determining the next steps.
Bitcoin Maintains Its Position Above 2024 Peak
Bitcoin has remained stable in a range of $83,000 to $85,000 following its impressive rise at the beginning of the year. This period of calm is shaped by global political uncertainties, interest rate expectations, and trade policies set by U.S. President Donald Trump. However, Cowen suggests that this stagnation is not a weakness but rather the beginning of a healthy consolidation process.
Cowen emphasizes that the 2024 peak at $69,000 is a vital support level for Bitcoin. He believes that even if there are brief drops below this level—technically termed “wicks”—the overall trend will remain intact as long as the price stays above this region. According to him, Bitcoin can regain strength without falling below $60,000.
This robust support area below the 2024 peak also shares similarities with previous market cycles. Notably, similar fluctuations occurred during 2016–2017, which preceded significant upward movements. Cowen advises that short-term volatility should not panic investors.
Forecast for New Bitcoin Peak: $200,000
Cowen notes that returns are diminishing in the current market cycle. This “decreasing return” phenomenon indicates more limited gains compared to previous cycles. Nonetheless, this does not imply that the upward potential is completely exhausted. He predicts that in a positive scenario, Bitcoin could rise between $120,000 and $150,000, and if significant institutional or government-supported purchases occur, the price could soar to $200,000.
Conversely, Cowen warns that if Bitcoin breaks below its 2024 peak, a “left-translated cycle” scenario could unfold, suggesting that Bitcoin might have already passed its peak. However, he emphasizes that current data does not support such a scenario and that this possibility is not on the table for now.
According to Cowen, unless there is a severe disruption in market structure, short-term pullbacks can be viewed as buying opportunities. The sustained institutional interest keeps significant upward scenarios alive. Therefore, if Bitcoin continues to move in line with historical cycles, reaching new record levels in the latter half of the year would not be surprising.
