Ripple’s XRP began the week with a sharp decline of over 5%, dropping below $2.23 and finding brief support around $2.15. This downturn was accompanied by a 37% decrease in daily trading volume, falling to $1.51 billion, and a concurrent drop in futures trading volume and open positions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.82, though a clear bottom signal is yet to emerge. Despite this decline, some investors on Deribit continue to hold double-digit return expectations, as evidenced by $4 target call options.
XRP’s Emerging Short-Term Selling Pressure
The initial sign of increased pressure in the spot market was the transformation of the 50-day EMA into resistance at $2.27. Intraday candlesticks forming a “doji” pattern suggest a fragile balance between buyers and sellers. The Average Directional Index (ADX) hovers around 23, indicating weak trends, but the 200-day EMA still lying below the price forestalls a complete sidelining of long-term bullish scenarios. Failing to regain the previous support at $2.23 could lead the chart to test the primary demand zone at $1.96.
On the volume front, the outlook is discouraging. On-chain data from the past 48 hours reveals no significant accumulation in XRP addresses, implying that the price drop hasn’t attracted strong bottom buyers yet. However, in the derivatives market, the decline in open interest to $3.9 billion reduces liquidation risks and partially shields against severe shocks. The concentration of call options within the $2.60 – $3.00 range indicates this might be the first liquidity target in a short-term recovery.
Long-Term Scenarios for the Altcoin
According to technical analyst Dark Defender’s weekly wave model, XRP could pause at $5.85 in a pattern similar to the November 2024 cycle, preparing for a new momentum toward the $18.22 – $23.20 range.
If confirmed by volume normalization and the RSI crossing above 50, the model predicts a parabolic movement mid-year leading to profit-taking. Approval of a Spot ETF or favorable progress in the Ripple 
$1-SEC case could trigger a classic supply shock by removing supply from exchanges.
More cautious analysts regarding institutional demand conclude the story within the $8 – $10 range. They argue that regulatory clarity delays and the altcoin cycle cannot mature without Bitcoin 
$75,805‘s market dominance declining. However, decentralized payment projects and tokenization pilots continue to add functional support to the XRP Ledger. Long-term upward trends remain technically intact as long as prices stay above the 200-week EMA ($1.52). Potential pullbacks could reinforce this area.
