Bitcoin (BTC) 
$77,112 has experienced a sharp decline, dropping 36% from its all-time high in October to a six-month low. This downturn has triggered panic selling among short-term investors. The critical threshold of $80,000 becomes a focal point, suggesting the possibility of a local bottom might be forming. However, the record-level sell-off by long-term investors introduces fragility to the market equilibrium.
Is Short-Term Capital Outflow a Bottom Signal?
According to blockchain data, investors holding BTC for less than 155 days have largely withdrawn from the market. Analyst Crypto Dan, stating on X, pointed to this group’s emotional behavior tendencies. He drew parallels between the current wave of sales and previous correction bottoms. “If this is a correction phase, the bottom is here. But if a new bear cycle has begun, the end of the downturn is far off,” he commented.
Meanwhile, analyst CryptoOnchain reported that around 63,000 BTC has been moved out of wallets owned by long-term investors. This aligns with previous cycles’ distribution behaviors, often coinciding with market peaks. Short-term investors attempted to partially offset selling pressure by buying around $87,000 during this period. However, there is a warning that if the new demand cannot absorb the sales, the decline could deepen.
Another blockchain analyst, GugaOnChain, shared that on November 23, the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator surpassed the 25 million threshold, signaling a sale. He reminded that in the same cycle, this metric has occurred four times, each resulting in a price correction situation.
Weak Demand and Market Delicacy
The analysts underline that the selling pressure has emerged during a period of fading institutional demand. CryptoQuant data highlights a significant slowdown in the asset growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch. Prominent institutional buyers have also lost purchasing power. For instance, Strategy has reduced its annual Bitcoin purchase from 171,000 BTC to 9,600 BTC.
Bitcoin struggled last week, dropping to $82,000, and is currently attempting to stabilize around $87,000. Over the last 30 days, it has decreased by 22%, with a yearly drop of 12%. The breach below $90,000 has broken a psychological threshold, and analysts now focus on the robust support zone in the $70,000–$73,000 range. This area aligns with the average cost levels of major investors.
Strategy shifts among investors are also drawing attention. Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” announced selling $2.25 million worth of BTC around $90,000, yet he maintained a long-term bullish outlook and intends to repurchase.
