On January 12, Bitcoin briefly dipped below its estimated miner break-even cost of approximately $101,999, reviving discussions around potential short-term market recovery. This price movement led to a marked divergence in views between those analysts who believe demand is returning and others who see continued fragility in Bitcoin’s technical outlook. The market is concurrently attempting to price in historical behaviors around miner costs and the effects of political-economic uncertainties.
Blockchain Indicators and Macro Landscape Around Bitcoin
Some commentators focusing on blockchain analytics suggest that the recent pullback might conceal a subtle strengthening beneath the surface. Analyst Wise Crypto noted that capital inflows are showing signs of a turnaround from the bottom, emphasizing that historically, periods when prices hover below miner costs have coincided with long-term lows in previous cycles. Miners’ production costs are historically seen as areas where supply pressure decreases, and buyers become more selective.
On the macro front, political discussions in the U.S. have created short-term uncertainty. According to a New York Times report, allegations have surfaced regarding an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, linked to a policy disagreement concerning interest rates and a $2.5 billion renovation of the central headquarters. These reports have stirred debates over the perceived strength of the dollar, while Bitcoin’s price showed a limited though positive response on the same day.
Matthew Sigel from asset management firm VanEck pointed out that despite the political noise, Bitcoin’s value rose by about 1%. Sigel notes that this movement occurred without any alterations in the supply program, once again highlighting the leading cryptocurrency‘s sensitivity to macro uncertainties.
Divergent Signals in the Technical Outlook
From a technical analysis perspective, the situation appears more complex. EGRAG CRYPTO indicated that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI indicator has now fallen below the 60 level, shifting momentum from neutral to slightly negative. Although there are hints of an upward bend in the indicator, the buying side has yet to provide strong confirmation.
Conversely, investors like Crypto Chase argue that hesitance in the $92,000–$93,000 range reflects weak demand appetite. The loss of significant moving averages above $101,000 on a weekly basis has reinforced the downside structure for some market participants, establishing a dense resistance zone around $96,000.
Bitcoin’s price performance currently reflects a quest for horizontal equilibrium in the short term. While Bitcoin increased by about 1% over the past 24 hours, it recorded a limited loss on a weekly scale. Despite being slightly in the green monthly, it remains approximately 27% below its peak of $126,000 seen in October 2025. Indicators like the Puell Multiple and MVRV, as noted by CryptosRus, suggest a pause in a mid-cycle without signs of overheating.
