The Economic Analysis Bureau of the U.S. has released the much-anticipated GDP data. This report, delayed due to a government shutdown, aligns with President Trump’s optimistic growth projections for the year. Concurrent with the GDP release, unemployment claims data were also published. All eyes are now on the PCE numbers set to be disclosed at 18:00.
The State of the U.S. GDP
Updated estimates from the Economic Analysis Bureau indicate that the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by an annual rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, encompassing July, August, and September. The previous quarter saw a real GDP rise of 3.8%. This report, replacing the third estimate initially scheduled for December 19, 2025, paints a positive picture for the economy.
“The real GDP growth in the third quarter reflects increases in consumer spending, exports, government expenditures, and investments. Imports, a subtractive element in GDP calculations, have declined.
Real GDP was revised slightly upwards by 0.1 points from initial estimates. This revision primarily captures upward adjustments in exports and investments, partially offset by downward revisions in consumer spending, alongside an upward revision in imports.”
Despite drawing a positive economic landscape, the report strengthens the position of Fed Hawks, thereby affecting expectations regarding interest rate cuts. The higher-than-forecast growth indicates that the economy remains resilient despite high interest rates. Given the economy’s robustness, the Fed is unlikely to risk “triggering inflation again with an early rate cut,” especially if today’s PCE data meets or exceeds expectations.
Employment figures have been strong this month, alleviating the pressure of employment contraction on the Fed. Although short-term outcomes appear negative for crypto, breaking the recession risk remains a positive sign in the long term. Moreover, no rate cuts were anticipated for this quarter, implying minimal negative impact on the crypto market.
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Announced: 200,000 (Forecast 209,000, Previous 198,000)
- U.S. GDP Quarterly Final Announcement: 4.4% (Forecast 4.3%, Previous -)
