The anticipated bull market for altcoins in 2025 has failed to materialize, and Bitcoin has already slipped back to the $60,000 range. In contrast to previous cycles, this recent turn of events offers little comfort to most cryptocurrency investors. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, if historical patterns repeat themselves, markets could still face at least four more months of sluggish conditions.
Altcoins lag as Bitcoin stalls below new highs
Despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, altcoin investors have not reaped the expected benefits. Many cryptocurrencies set new lows in 2024, disappointing those who had hoped for a sustained rally. Additionally, the possibility of a prolonged conflict involving Iran has heightened the risks of a broader downturn in traditional markets, while also raising the prospect of further losses in the cryptocurrency sector.
On-chain metrics reveal resistance near $72,500
In his latest market assessment, Darkfost examines current conditions through the lens of the “Realized Price” metric. By excluding coins that have remained inactive for over seven years—either locked in lost wallets or held long-term by so-called “diamond hands”—he argues that analysts can obtain a clearer picture of recent investor behavior and more accurately identify key resistance levels.
This adjusted Realized Price currently stands at around $72,500—a crucial level for market participants.
Darkfost explains, “This chart illustrates a cost basis that excludes coins older than seven years, offering a more accurate depiction of circulating supply. By filtering out lost BTC and coins held by permanent holders—commonly referred to as ‘diamond hands’—the revised Realized Price now hovers near $72,500, functioning as a significant resistance point.”
For the past two months, Bitcoin’s spot price has struggled to break above this resistance. Historical data suggest that, during each bear cycle, Bitcoin typically remains below its Realized Price cost basis for six to ten months before reclaiming this territory. That experience could provide a template for the current phase.
Based on these observations, it is likely that Bitcoin will persist below the $72,500 threshold (a level that may gradually shift lower over time) for another four to eight months. If this trend holds, the earliest meaningful recovery could begin toward the end of July, with a possible extension of the sluggish market environment into November or December 2026.
Short-term outlook hinges on geopolitical tensions and economic data
In the immediate term, market attention remains focused on developments in Iran and their potential impact on global risk sentiment. While employment data is due Friday, a significant weakening of jobs figures—enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower rates—appears unlikely in the current context. Meanwhile, triple-digit oil prices are further complicating the economic outlook.
A short-term heat map points to clusters of liquidity accumulating at lower price brackets. Tests of levels below $62,000 would not be surprising in the coming week, and if selling accelerates, the $56,000 zone could serve as an interim support area.
