XRP has been stuck in a downward spiral for the past eight months, but recent technical and on-chain indicators are signaling that a major turnaround could be on the horizon. Particularly, the XRP/BTC ratio is flashing signs resembling those seen at previous major market bottoms.
Historic RSI levels point to rebound
On the daily charts, XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) against Bitcoin has dropped to 24, its most oversold position since October 2025. Such low RSI readings historically coincide with major price bottoms and are often followed by significant rallies.
During past periods showing similar signals, XRP’s value relative to Bitcoin surged between 65% and 345%. This notable pattern suggests that the current levels may mark a potentially pivotal turning point for XRP.
Chart data further reveal that the XRP/BTC pair has been consolidating within a tight sideways band for some time. Historically, such periods of price compression have often preceded strong upward movements.
For example, in June 2025, a move that originated from a similar low propelled the XRP/BTC ratio up by 61%. During that same rally, XRP’s price soared by 92%, reaching a multi-year peak at $3.66.
Other intervals highlighted on the charts also reinforce the reliability of these levels as macro market lows. That’s why market observers are paying close attention to the current price structure.
MVRV indicator and support levels take center stage
On-chain metrics also present compelling data. The MVRV Z-score—a key gauge comparing market value and realized value—is hovering near zero, indicating that many investors are holding around their cost basis. Such conditions suggest selling pressure may be easing, and the market is searching for a bottom.
Similar MVRV levels were seen in 2021, 2022, and again in 2024, each time preceding pronounced price upswings. Notably, at the end of 2024, XRP started a run from $0.30 that catapulted above $3, exceeding a 500% gain in the aftermath of this signal.
Based on the MVRV price bands, $0.80 is viewed as a historic low zone, which currently aligns with the $1.14 level. Interestingly, this is also where XRP notched its lowest price in 15 months back in February.
These on-chain findings suggest that XRP may currently be undervalued, and a sustained recovery could already be underway. If this bullish scenario materializes, analysts say a push toward $1.70 isn’t out of the question.
Looking at the short-term chart, the $1.25-$1.30 range stands out as a major support band. If XRP can hold above this zone, analysts expect the price to prompt another upward reaction.
Nearly 1.73 billion XRP tokens have changed hands within this support area, signaling that investors regard this price range as an important cost base. Such accumulation further strengthens its role as a critical support.
However, a drop below $1.15 could accelerate downside risk, with a deeper pullback toward $0.80 becoming increasingly likely from a technical perspective.
