Six weeks of ongoing conflict have triggered a striking divergence in the Bitcoin market. While institutional investors continue to build their positions, most retail and discretionary investors have either left the market or are choosing to sell.
Institutional buying remains strong, but new demand is thin
Despite dramatic headlines, $600 million in liquidations, and some of the weakest market sentiment seen in years, Bitcoin has managed to stay within the $65,000–$73,000 price band in recent weeks. However, the pool of buyers is steadily shrinking.
Currently, MicroStrategy stands out as the main player consistently making large-scale Bitcoin purchases. Its latest acquisition on April 5 added 4,871 BTC, raising its total holdings to a staggering 766,970 BTC. The company has spent $58.02 billion overall, with an average buy price of $75,644 per coin. This leaves MicroStrategy about 8% underwater at current prices, yet the firm keeps buying, aiming to lower its average cost.
In March, MicroStrategy maintained a steady 30-day buying pace, snapping up 44,000 BTC. New inflows to its premium share product, STRC, have helped the company continue amassing Bitcoin despite the headwinds.
Over the same period, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly 50,000 BTC across 30 days — the fastest rate since October 2025. Appetite for such products has varied widely across countries, with Swiss-listed funds attracting $157 million in inflows, making up 70% of worldwide activity.
Although institutional demand persists, weekly inflows show signs of losing momentum. The bulk of investment is now concentrated in just a handful of products, highlighting a narrowing base of interest.
Big holders and miners join the selling, retail interest drops off
Large Bitcoin holders — wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC — shifted from being net buyers in the early phase of this year’s bull market to offloading nearly 400,000 BTC over the past year. According to CryptoQuant, this group has entered its strongest selling phase in recent years, with sales appearing to be driven by structural rather than short-term factors.
Mid-sized investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are still net buyers, albeit at a much slower pace. Their purchase speed is more than 60% lower than last October.
Publicly traded Bitcoin miners have also begun converting their digital holdings into cash. Companies like Riot Platforms, MARA Holdings, and Genius Group released 19,000 BTC to the market over just the past week. Faced with rising electricity costs and mounting competition, some miners are pivoting to new ventures including AI hosting to diversify revenue streams.
Meanwhile, the Kingdom of Bhutan has sold roughly 70% of the Bitcoin earned from its hydro-powered mining operations since October 2024, reducing its holdings from around 13,000 to just 3,954. The nation has not realized a major mining windfall for over a year.
Taking all these trends together, the market now sees sustainable demand primarily from a handful of large, committed institutional buyers; other investors have exited or are on the selling side.
Market sentiment has also turned sharply negative, with the Fear and Greed Index languishing between 8 and 14 for more than a month — the most prolonged stretch of anxiety since the last major downturn. Social media posts, heavily influenced by continuing conflict, have hit record levels of pessimism.
Yet the steady stream of mandatory institutional purchases has kept Bitcoin from falling below $65,000. In March, ETFs and MicroStrategy alone acquired 94,000 BTC — a significant support for the price.
News of a cease-fire sparked a rapid market rebound. Bitcoin surged past $72,000, with $427 million in short positions liquidated and a notable jump in open interest for futures. The Coinbase Premium metric pointed to signs that U.S. buyers are returning.
However, the underlying structural split in the market remains. Whether this rebound will become a lasting turnaround depends on the persistence of institutional inflows and the arrival of a durable peace settlement.
- Bitcoin breaks $72,000 as institutions drive market, but retail sells off. 🚀
- Amid recent conflict and record pessimism, institutional buying stayed strong while smaller investors cashed out.
- Critical data: ETF and MicroStrategy purchases hit 94,000 BTC in March, offsetting mass sales by whales and miners.
- Watch out: If institutional demand weakens, Bitcoin’s support could quickly unravel.
