This year, the odds that the Clarity Act—a sweeping US bill aimed at regulating the digital asset and cryptocurrency markets—will become law have dropped to 30%, according to Ron Hammond, Policy Lead at leading crypto market maker Wintermute.
Bank resistance slows negotiations
Hammond highlighted that the proposal is making headway in the House Committee but faces significant obstacles, particularly around the banking sector’s reservations toward digital assets. The drawn-out process reflects mounting disagreements among stakeholders as the bill advances.
The Clarity Act seeks to define which federal agencies—namely the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—will regulate digital assets. By clarifying whether certain cryptocurrencies will be legally classified as securities or commodities, the bill promises much-needed transparency for how assets will be traded on US markets.
Recent polls surveyed by industry groups suggest that just 26% think the bill can pass, while betting markets put its chances closer to 50%. Taken together, these numbers underscore how little consensus exists on the bill’s ultimate fate and point to a lingering regulatory uncertainty for US crypto markets.
One major sticking point has been banks’ opposition to allowing yield-bearing products for stablecoins. While the White House and several large crypto firms have floated alternative solutions in recent weeks, the banking industry has so far refused to soften its stance or accept such arrangements.
Hammond explained, “There have been attempts to find solutions from various sides: Coinbase, the White House, and the bill’s authors have all tried to reach a compromise. But each time, banks don’t budge.”
Pivotal moment: Political and market balance
Should the Clarity Act pass into law, both crypto investors and major institutional players could finally expect a clear regulatory framework in the United States. This clarity would lower legal hurdles that currently keep large funds, banks, and pension plans from entering the crypto market, paving the way for innovative products and broader integration across the financial sector.
Yet resistance, especially from the traditional finance sector regarding yield on stablecoins, continues to slow meaningful compromise. Even a recent “interest agreement” proposal made little headway, failing to satisfy any major party. With negotiations now shifting to new proposals, expectations remain guarded about the prospect for quick breakthroughs.
Political posturing in Washington has also intensified. Some lawmakers—especially within the Democratic Party—have struggled to stake out clear positions, torn between industry support and concerns over decentralized finance and anti-money-laundering measures. These issues have become central to the widening debate over the bill’s direction.
Hammond noted that political debates surrounding crypto could intensify in the coming months, and that ongoing scrutiny of former US President Donald Trump’s crypto activities may impact Democratic support.
Amid all this, Hammond says passage remains possible, but only through a “narrow corridor.” Further progress in committee and continuing compromise between the opposing sides will ultimately decide the bill’s future.
Wintermute itself stands as one of the world’s largest market makers, reportedly trading around $10 million in crypto assets daily. The company has recently ramped up operations in the US, expanding its New York office and hiring new staff—a move some link to a more favorable regulatory perception emerging stateside.
Emphasizing long-term confidence in the US market, Hammond pointed to continuous growth in Wintermute’s operations since the last election, highlighting ongoing commitment despite the industry’s regulatory turbulence.
Nevertheless, a range of unresolved issues still threaten to derail the Clarity Act. Hammond argued that further progress and innovative policy solutions will be essential if the bill is to clear all hurdles by 2026. For now, with expectations of passage hovering around 30%, it looks unlikely that Washington will deliver a decisive outcome on crypto regulation anytime soon.
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