At the start of 2026, a pronounced slowdown across the cryptocurrency market is forcing industry leaders, especially top U.S. exchange Coinbase, to significantly revise their financial forecasts. In response, Wall Street heavyweights like Barclays and Oppenheimer are now slashing their revenue projections for crypto platforms as trading volumes drop to lows not seen since late 2023.
Trading volume sees steep decline
Barclays took the boldest step by downgrading its rating for Coinbase, pointing out that global crypto trading activity has slumped to levels last observed at the end of 2023. The bank warned that unless trading recovers in the short term, Coinbase’s profitability could come under even greater pressure.
According to recent data, Coinbase’s trading volume in March fell to its lowest since September 2024, with no sign of a turnaround in April. Barclays estimates that the company saw its trading volume drop by roughly 30 percent in the first quarter compared to the previous period.
Exchanges like Coinbase largely rely on commissions from user transactions, so as total trading volume shrinks, revenues take a direct hit.
Lower volatility in the market is also prompting a withdrawal of active investors. When prices stay flat, individual traders tend to step back, and this behavior, repeated across millions of accounts, leads to a rapid decline in daily volumes on platforms.
Analysts balance between caution and optimism
Barclays also underlined that Coinbase’s main source of income—transaction fees—remains under severe strain, and it cut its adjusted EBITDA forecast to 24 percent below consensus expectations. The downbeat forecast is driven by weak spot trading volumes and subdued retail investor participation.
The broader crypto market has also faced a sharp downturn. In the first quarter, Bitcoin lost more than 22 percent of its value and Ether fell by nearly 29 percent, dampening investor enthusiasm and overall trading activity as a result.
Oppenheimer, by contrast, offered a more moderate perspective on Coinbase’s outlook. Despite this, the firm lowered its revenue projections to reflect falling cryptocurrency prices and volumes, and pointed out that Wall Street’s mainstream forecasts have yet to fully adjust to the latest declines in activity.
Oppenheimer revised its own quarterly trading volume forecast for Coinbase from $244 billion down to $211 billion. Projected total revenue has also slipped, now anticipated at $1.48 billion—below previous estimates.
The contraction in trading activity isn’t unique to Coinbase. Oppenheimer noted that stablecoin USDC issuer Circle managed to increase its network’s market cap and transfer volume by 1 percent and 12 percent, respectively. Still, even firms like Circle and Bullish have fallen short of growth expectations.
Barclays characterized Coinbase’s push into areas such as derivatives and tokenization as a longer-term strategy, expressing skepticism that these moves would have a meaningful impact in the near future. The bank also cited ongoing uncertainty around stablecoin regulations in the U.S. as a lingering concern.
Oppenheimer, however, suggested that the introduction of new use cases for USDC could bolster the business in the short run.
With earnings season on the horizon, analysts are becoming more cautious, scaling back forecasts ahead of financial results. Coinbase is scheduled to release its quarterly figures on May 7, followed by Bullish on April 23. Circle, for its part, has yet to announce when it will report its own results.
- 📉 Coinbase trading volume sank 30 percent as crypto stagnated.
- Institutions like Barclays and Oppenheimer just lowered their revenue forecasts.
- Critical data: Trading volumes hit lows not seen since 2023, with analysts warning of further earnings pressure.
- ⚠️ Watch out: Continued sluggishness could hit profits unless trading rebounds.
