Bitcoin started the new week holding above $70,000 but quickly slipped back, losing the key 71,500 mark after a weekend of tense negotiations with little headway. As the temporary two-week ceasefire remains in effect, both sides continue to push their demands to the limit, taking full advantage of the negotiation window. So what are QCP Capital analysts saying about the rapidly shifting landscape?
QCP Capital’s crypto outlook
QCP Capital analysts cautioned that markets appear braced for disappointment, with risk aversion deepening. Oil surged past $100 as traders sought safety, while Bitcoin faced tough resistance at $74,000. Ethereum also lost ground, dropping from $2,330 to $2,180 and struggling to hold the $2,200 level. At the time the report was compiled, ETH was trading at $2,188, with volatility on the rise.
QCP Capital noted that “Trump, escalating his rhetoric, threatened to fully blockade the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iran’s oil flow. Iran responded just as forcefully, signaling a possible disruption through the Bab el-Mandeb. In the end, the circle of risk has widened, spotlighting energy security as a global concern and already drawing opposition from Europe.”
The US blockade threat appears largely aimed at disrupting China’s flow of Iranian oil. This dynamic could pave the way for Chinese pressure on Iran to reach an agreement or raise the chances of even deeper tensions. Notably, Trump postponed his long-planned trip to China at the end of March with no new date set—a visit that was originally scheduled for mid-2023.
QCP analysts emphasized that “China is at the center of this. As Iranian crude flows primarily to the East, any blockade would directly impact China’s supply chain. It’s unlikely there will be much support for switching to US crude, especially where broader strategic goals, like yuan-based trade, are at play.”
Escalating risk with China’s involvement
Intercepting Chinese vessels on international waters could spark far larger issues. According to QCP analysts, markets have yet to fully price in this risk. While Trump believes he can achieve sweeping outcomes, the real-world consequences could go far beyond his expectations.
Despite the headwinds, QCP points out that implied volatility and risk reversals across crypto markets suggest a normalization phase. This means, for now, the sector might be digesting shocks more calmly than headline risks suggest.
QCP Capital highlighted, “The flow data backs this up. BlackRock’s IBIT led ETF inflows with $612.1 million last week, demonstrating that institutional interest remains firmly constructive at these levels.”
The next major market move could hinge on how the blockade develops and whether China chooses to escalate or de-escalate the standoff. All eyes remain on day-to-day shifts in diplomatic tone and the possibility of sudden market reactions.
