Cryptocurrency investors have faced a turbulent 2025, with regulatory changes turning each month into a fresh challenge. Prices have swung sharply on the back of constant uncertainty and conflicting headlines. As 2026 unfolds, former President Trump’s renewed military operation against Iran has once again brought volatility and ambiguity to the market. Today, traders can see sentiment flip within mere hours. Bitcoin now finds itself retracing a pattern reminiscent of its turmoil in 2022. What’s next for the flagship crypto asset?
Is Bitcoin heading for a bottom?
The analyst known as Darkfost, who calculates the monthly Bitcoin funding rate, says that what unfolded in 2022 is repeating itself. As funding rates remain bearish, the crypto market has entered a phase of widespread disbelief. This period is often viewed as a critical inflection point, setting the stage for a potential market bottom. According to both technical analysis and current news flow, if Bitcoin’s latest attempt to break above $80,000 fails, conditions will be ripe for a further downturn.
The following chart illustrates the 30-day cumulative funding rate change on Binance, clearly showing a move into negative territory. Late in 2022, as BTC began to emerge from the bear market, funding rates continued to decline, dropping as low as minus 7 percent over a 30-day period.
“At present, the indicator stands at minus 4.5 percent. This underscores the extent to which traders have continued taking positions against the market in recent months. Historically, whenever such a strong consensus emerges, it often marks a reversal point, helping to form a bottom and fueling the next rally.”
If the pattern persists, we could witness a rebound similar to Bitcoin’s recoveries in 2020, 2021, and at the bottom in 2022. Although the deepening negativity increases the risk of a lower bottom, there’s also a possibility that prices have already found support and are on the rise. Current developments around Iran are especially pivotal for market direction.
What’s driving the agenda in crypto?
As this article is written, Trump is preparing to speak at a healthcare-related event. Yet, the primary focus for investors remains the situation with Iran. There have been a flood of headlines, from claims of resignations within the negotiation team to reports of attacks in Lebanon, many of which were later denied. This resulted in significant volatility: BTC fell with initial reports, only to rebound as the stories were refuted. It was a day marked by dramatic swings.
Tether’s decision to freeze $344 million in USDT across two Tron wallets—at the request of OFAC and US law enforcement—was one of the day’s most talked-about moves. This action represents the single largest freezing operation ever undertaken by Tether alone.
Meanwhile, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, informed Congress that the military is actively running a node. This is done to facilitate research into both proof-of-work and cryptography as a matter of national security.
The market remains exceptionally sensitive to global geopolitical and regulatory news, continuing the year’s turbulent trend. Each new headline brings fresh uncertainty, leaving traders to navigate rapidly changing conditions.
