Bitcoin delivered a return of 11 percent in April, marking its best-performing month since April 2025. This sharp increase followed five consecutive months of declines, signaling two straight months of recovery. Despite this surge, Bitcoin remains approximately 38 percent below its historic peak of $125,100 recorded in October.
Geopolitical dynamics and ETF inflows
Recent weeks in the cryptocurrency market have been largely shaped by potential ceasefire measures and diplomatic overtures between the United States and Iran. With Friday’s renewed appetite for risk, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows totaling $630 million. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump publicly labeled Iran’s latest proposal as unacceptable. Subsequently, Bitcoin prices settled into a sideways trend, with investors closely watching the $78,600 level ahead of the weekly close.
Analysis indicates Bitcoin is hovering just below $79,000, with the $80,000 mark continuing to present significant resistance. Evaluations from Brave New Coin highlight that while ETF investments have steered recent movements, sustained gains are likely to require consistent inflows over multiple days rather than isolated spikes in activity.
Key step in the CLARITY Act
A major topic dominating the market agenda is the long-awaited CLARITY Act currently under consideration in the US Congress. This regulation would prohibit stablecoin issuers from offering interest similar to bank deposits, but notably exempts user activity-based reward programs from its restrictions. This detail has been a central pillar of the legal defense mounted by US-based crypto exchange Coinbase. The company’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, openly expressed explicit support for the amended bill in a social media update following its latest revision.
With Brian Armstrong voicing clear support for the new legislation, Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal underscored that the law now ensures user activity-based rewards on crypto platforms will be legally protected.
After Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks reached an agreement on the updated proposal, the bill is now expected to advance before the end of May. Meanwhile, market sentiment regarding the legislation has improved noticeably in recent months.
Technical outlook and short-term expectations
For market professionals, the critical level for the new week is now clear. A weekly close above $78,670 could open the door technically to targets above $80,000. Should newsflow between the United States and Iran take a negative turn or if the passage of the CLARITY Act is delayed, Bitcoin may oscillate between its 200-day moving average around $68,000 and the significant $80,000 resistance. Historically, May has brought average gains of about 8 percent, but this year’s momentum is primarily driven by geopolitical headlines.
According to CryptoAppsy data, Bitcoin was trading near $79,000 at the end of April and the technical thresholds outlined above are seen as critical by investors.
