The technical outlook for Bitcoin remains weak, signaling continued downward pressure across the market. However, several long-term indicators show similarities to the bottom phases of previous bear cycles. As of July 3, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $61,848. Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has risen 0.84%, recording a daily trading volume of $36.14 billion and a market capitalization of $1.25 trillion.
Key indicators echo past market bottoms
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe highlights that Bitcoin’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to its lowest point ever recorded over BTC’s trading history. The RSI is widely used to assess the strength of price movements. Historically, extremely low RSI values have often coincided with periods near market bottoms.
Glossary: RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a technical indicator that measures the speed and direction of price movements. Readings below 30 are considered oversold, while those above 70 indicate overbought. The MACD, meanwhile, tracks momentum shifts via the relationship between short and long-term moving averages.
According to van de Poppe, this month’s monthly RSI level is even lower than those observed during previous bear market lows. He considers this a sign that Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of its most intense periods, and believes the current price zone aligns with past cycle bottoms.
Van de Poppe emphasizes that the monthly RSI has dropped to its lowest in Bitcoin’s history, reflecting similarly weak momentum to what was seen during major market bottoms in the past.
Selling pressure persists on weekly timeframes
Van de Poppe also draws attention to the weekly RSI, which slipped below the 30 level this year. According to the analyst, a comparable scenario had only occurred during the sharp sell-off of 2022. The recent push towards lower price levels has likewise mirrored that period’s market structure.
On the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, Bitcoin has shown its most pronounced negative expansion to date, reinforcing the momentum behind selling. Van de Poppe notes that several on-chain metrics, too, are converging towards readings previously seen during bear market lows.
The largest negative expansion seen on the weekly MACD reflects continued strong selling pressure, while certain on-chain signals also recall those apparent near earlier market bottoms.
Focus remains on the $57,500–$62,000 support zone
Despite the overall weakness, Bitcoin continues to hold above a major support region. Based on the MA Ribbon, BTC is now priced at $61,893. This level sits below the 20-week moving average at $70,032, the 100-week average at $88,384, and the 200-week average at $88,580.
Additionally, Bitcoin is trading close to the 50-week moving average at $62,652, which is seen as a significant near-term support. A move above the 20-week average at roughly $70,000 would be a positive technical development for the asset.
| Indicator | Level |
|---|---|
| Current price | $61,848 |
| 50-week moving avg | $62,652 |
| 20-week moving avg | $70,032 |
| Lower support region | $57,500 |
Traders closely watch volatility bands and support
Bollinger Bands also suggest that selling pressure has not completely dissipated. The upper band is placed at $82,551, the middle band at $70,032, and the lower band at $57,513. With BTC’s price trading closer to the lower band, the market remains cautious.
If buyers manage to hold the $57,500 level, there is potential for Bitcoin to retest the middle band near $70,000. However, a sustained loss of this support could bring renewed downward pressure on BTC. Whether the $57,500–$62,000 zone holds and if a recovery to $70,000 is possible will be the key focal points for market watchers in the coming weeks.
