Although BTC has surged past $81,000, there is still uncertainty about whether this is a genuine rally or a temporary spike. For months, investors have seen bullish movements quickly reverse amid negative developments. U.S. midterm elections and other imminent events are also looming, which might not play in Bitcoin’s favor. According to analysts, there are three critical levels that investors need to watch closely.
Three key levels for Bitcoin
The 1-year moving average (MA) is seen as confirmation that a downtrend has ended and a new rally period could begin. On-Chain Mind, in its assessment today, highlighted three vital metrics and called for investor caution. Currently, Bitcoin faces a multi-layered resistance wall; for now, only the short-term holder cost basis at $78,000 has been reclaimed. Data also indicates an uptick in short-term holder transfers to exchanges, signaling that these investors are entering selling mode.
The three thresholds drawing attention are as follows: the realized price for short-term investors—the break-even point for recent buyers and often the catalyst for bear market rallies—stands at $78,000. The 200-day moving average, a widely followed trend line in the financial sector, is positioned at $83,000. The yearly moving average, which would confirm the start of a bull market, sits at $90,000.
“We are currently testing lower levels. Historically, such intersections have marked the end of many rallies. A clear close above the yearly MA is what turns the tide.” – On-Chain Mind
Meanwhile, market analyst Michael Poppe has warned of possible corrections despite the ongoing uptrend. However, even Poppe—well known for his optimism—believes the upward momentum could continue up to $93,000, accounting for any interim pullbacks along the way.
“There’s room at least up to $86,000–88,000 and quite possibly to $91,000–93,000.”
Solana faces uncertainty
Following the Drift Protocol hack, sentiment around SOL Coin became even more uncertain. Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s resilience has provided some support for SOL, despite broader negativity. For the past three months, Solana (SOL) has traded within a 10% range. Analyst DaanCrypto suggests this prolonged period of low volatility could set the stage for a major breakout movement soon.
“SOL has been trapped in about a 10% range for the past three months. This is the lowest volatility we’ve seen in years. At some point, this will result in a major move. The direction will depend entirely on which side breaks out first. In my view, this will not be the time to bet against the trend. Once the range is broken, we’re likely to see at least a 20–30% upward move.”
