The famed 2022 “crypto prophet” Capo has returned to the spotlight with new forecasts for investors, just as QCP Capital analysts and US Federal Reserve officials weigh in on recent market dynamics. As crypto traders brace for another potentially slow weekend, attention also turns to escalating developments in Iran. So, what are the experts predicting for the days ahead?
Fed and employment data in focus
Today, robust US employment numbers have been released, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates steady through 2026. While some figures like Hassett and Miran suggest eventual rate cuts, and Warsh backs this view, inflation trends have yet to reverse. With oil prices hovering in the triple digits and monthly inflation up 1 percent, policymakers remain cautious.
Meanwhile, Iran announced that its temporary Hormuz Strait management plan will soon become permanent legislation. As a major win from its strategic positioning, Iran demands control over the strait and aims to impose transit fees. Reports of recent clashes between US and Iranian ships near the strait are now surfacing through local sources.
Federal Reserve official Goolsbee addressed the situation with the following remarks:
“The labor market remains largely stable, with only limited signs of weakening. Inflation continues at elevated levels and is moving in the wrong direction. The increase is not solely energy-driven; inflation was high even before the conflict began.
My main concern is inflation in the services sector. The Fed must continue to closely monitor inflation dynamics, considering all factors in its decision-making. The persistence of the energy shock is still under review.
I worry that markets might be factoring in productivity gains from artificial intelligence prematurely.”
QCP Capital and Capo’s forecasts
According to QCP Capital analysts, today’s employment data has become pivotal. They caution that these robust figures could prompt the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, thereby pressuring equities. This would also negatively impact cryptocurrencies, evidenced by prices lingering below $80,000 at the time of writing. QCP analysts also reiterated their stagflation warning in their latest market commentary.
“Prediction markets assign a 97% chance that stability will not return to the Strait of Hormuz before May 15. The gap between this pricing and equities’ inclination to shrug off tensions is the week’s defining contradiction. With FOMC minutes due May 20, if oil market tensions have not eased by then, it will be increasingly difficult to dismiss a stagflation scenario.”
What is Capo’s stance? The “crypto prophet” of 2022 shared the chart above, expressing the view that the ongoing short-term correction is not yet over and ultimately signaling optimism for further price gains.
“The short-term correction is ongoing. I expect one more drop to the 78,000–79,000 range, after which the uptrend should resume.”
With tensions in the Hormuz Strait and persistent inflationary pressures, both the traditional and digital asset markets remain volatile as critical dates approach for major policy decisions.
The crypto community is now closely watching macroeconomic signals from employment data and central bank statements, which play a decisive role in shaping asset prices.
All eyes are on May 15 and May 20, when the resolution (or lack thereof) of geopolitical risks and publication of FOMC minutes could seal the fate of this stagflation debate.
