Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed approximately 40 percent from its February lows, once again approaching a significant resistance level in the market. Whether BTC can break through this key threshold could determine if the bearish trend will finally come to an end.
BTC price at critical technical thresholds
According to recent data, Bitcoin dropped by 2.25 percent to around $80,500 after once more failing to surpass its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) line. Since November 2025, this technical level has stood out as a major resistance zone, repeatedly halting Bitcoin’s upward attempts.
Historically, rejections from the 200-day EMA have led to sharp corrections of 25 percent and 36 percent, respectively. On average, similar patterns have resulted in a nearly 30 percent decline in Bitcoin’s value during past cycles.
Analyst Brett has stated that, “If Bitcoin manages to break through its 200-day EMA, which serves as resistance at around $82,580, the bear market could be over.” However, with BTC recently retreating from this level, the possibility of further declines in the sessions ahead is now in focus.
If the familiar rejection pattern repeats, another roughly 30 percent drop could push Bitcoin’s price down to around $56,600.
Long-term support model and possible scenarios
Analysts note that a retreat to $56,600 would overlap with a broad support band previously defined as a macro support area. PlanC, a prominent market observer, identifies the upper end of this long-term support band at about $57,110, with its lower edge at $46,760, based on Bitcoin’s lifespan-adjusted support model.
The model combines historical simple moving averages (SMA) with various exponential moving averages, focusing on a 10 percent range around these averages. Historically, such long-term support regions have served as crucial base levels in prior bear markets. As a result, even if prices drop toward the $50,000 range, Bitcoin would still be trading at a critical long-term floor.
Additionally, analysts continue to warn that an unresolved “bear flag” pattern could see Bitcoin’s price fall below the $60,000 mark in the weeks ahead.
Essential technical indicators in price movement
Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Bitcoin’s strong rebound from its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) has emerged as a historic bullish signal, according to analysts. Following a test of this level near $61,000, BTC gained more than 38 percent in value.
This level almost exactly coincides with Bitcoin’s cyclical bottoms in both 2018 and during the March 2020 crisis. In prior cycles, when BTC briefly dipped below this support, it quickly rallied to retest the 50-week SMA.
Looking ahead, analysts have set $94,700 as a potential upward target for Bitcoin, representing a roughly 17 percent gain from current levels. Achieving this would also reinforce Brett’s view that the bear market is over.
Positive sentiment is not limited to technical signals. It was highlighted that major investors—also known as “whales”—have recently accumulated Bitcoin amounts nearly equal to 500 percent of the new coin supply, signaling heightened confidence in the asset.
