Arthur Hayes, one of the co-founders of BitMEX, has released a new analysis claiming that Bitcoin set a major price bottom around $60,000 earlier this year and could now be primed to revisit its previous high of $126,000. Hayes presented this prediction in his recently published report titled “The Butterfly Touch.”
Macroeconomic forces shape Bitcoin’s path
Hayes contends that large-scale economic dynamics, rather than short-term trading signals, will drive Bitcoin’s next rally. He points to surging investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, increased government spending due to global conflicts, rising commodity stockpiles, and expanding credit in both US dollars and Chinese yuan as key factors influencing the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.
Technology firms and governments are now allocating huge resources to data centers, semiconductors, and power grids. According to Hayes, such a wave of investment will loosen credit conditions and necessitate further government intervention to support these sectors.
He further notes that escalating geopolitical tensions and rising defense budgets are pushing nations to spend more on both security and critical infrastructure. Hayes argues that these trends may weaken the long-term purchasing power of traditional currencies, increasing demand for scarce digital assets like Bitcoin.
Technical indicators under the microscope
Bitcoin has recently recovered to as high as $80,875, distancing itself from the April lows. As of now, the leading cryptocurrency is fluctuating within the $80,646 to $80,875 range. Data from CryptoAppsy highlights that a decisive breakout above the key resistance at $86,549 is crucial for Bitcoin to establish lasting momentum. The $86,500 to $90,900 zone is regarded as a critical sell area if upward movement continues.
On the downside, the first major support is positioned at $79,127. If Bitcoin slips below this level, additional support could emerge at $76,604, followed by a further fallback zone between $73,408 and $71,438 if selling pressure intensifies.
On-chain analytics from widely followed research firm CryptoQuant are also making headlines. According to analyst Moreno, Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has just entered the early bull territory for the first time since March 2023.
“This indicator is used to track broad trend shifts in the market. Entering the early bull area can be interpreted as a sign that the most challenging part of the correction phase may be over,” Moreno explained in his assessment.
Meanwhile, market watchers are closely monitoring both the 21-day moving average and the critical $76,000 support zone. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized that while the bullish trend remains intact, holding these key support levels is essential for upward momentum to continue.
Who is Arthur Hayes?
Arthur Hayes is recognized as a central figure in the cryptocurrency world. He gained prominence by founding the BitMEX exchange, which contributed to making derivatives trading a mainstay in the crypto industry. Hayes is also known for his bold predictions on Bitcoin prices; while some of his calls have matched market movements, the timing has not always been precise.
Notably, Hayes previously projected that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025—a milestone not met amid recent market volatility. Nonetheless, his analyses, which focus on global macroeconomic developments, remain closely watched by investors in the digital asset space.
