Bitcoin’s recent surge above $79,000 has captured market attention, but veteran analyst Peter Brandt warns it is still too early to call a decisive bottom for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Brandt maintains that despite this upward movement, Bitcoin technically remains trapped inside a correction channel and has yet to deliver confirmation of a sustainable trend reversal.
Key resistance and possible scenarios
Evaluating Bitcoin’s daily chart, Peter Brandt points out that a bearish channel has persisted since the February lows. According to him, the latest price upswing should be interpreted as a reaction rally within the channel rather than a definitive breakout. Bitcoin recently touched $79,660, testing resistance at the top of this channel—an area that historically triggered selling pressure, especially since the April rally began. Brandt highlights $79,145 as a pivotal level to monitor: if Bitcoin closes a day below this ATR-based threshold, waning bullish momentum could prompt another pullback from channel resistance.
Should the price end up beneath the $79,145 mark, the channel’s midpoint will become the next critical support. Failing to hold this median line may raise the risk of a further decline toward the channel’s lower boundary, potentially extending short-term corrections across the market.
On-chain metrics and market sentiment
Beyond technical analysis, on-chain data sends meaningful signals about the current state of the Bitcoin market. Short-term investors’ unrealized profit ratio has climbed to 17.7% as of May 5, its highest level since June 2025. This sharp increase underlines a growing likelihood of profit-taking, which historically led to sell-offs—mirrored during similar conditions near the 200-day moving average in March 2022, after which prices receded.
Additionally, realized daily profits hit 14,600 BTC on May 4, reaching their highest point since December 10, 2025. This underscores that many investors took advantage of the recent price rally to lock in gains and sell their holdings.
US data, spot demand, and market response
There is also notable movement in spot trading. At the end of April, Bitcoin’s price premium on Coinbase turned negative, indicating weaker US spot demand compared to global averages. While spot demand, which shrank by 91,000 BTC in April, partially recovered to a contraction of 11,000 BTC in May, the market has yet to return to consistently positive levels. Most recent demand has stemmed primarily from derivatives exchanges rather than spot activity.
On the macroeconomic front, inflation data from the United States continues to weigh on the crypto market. The Producer Price Index (PPI) surged to 6% year-over-year, while core PPI hit 5.2%. These figures suggest the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut interest rates in the near term, keeping liquidity conditions tight for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector.
Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past three months. BTC has appreciated about 20% during this period, compared to an 8% gain for the S&P 500 and a 6% drop in gold. This resilience highlights Bitcoin’s ongoing appeal even as risky assets face tough macro headwinds.
Peter Brandt comments, “Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear bottom, and the price has not confirmed a recovery trend without a decisive breakout. The crucial factor is a daily close above the upper band of the channel; otherwise, the price may turn downwards again in the coming days.”
