Bitcoin’s recent slide toward $76,275 dampened market enthusiasm, but technical indicators continue to signal an ongoing medium- and long-term bullish trend. On the macroeconomic front, the decreasing likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve is putting short-term pressure on prices. However, weekly charts using Bollinger Bands show that a critical support level has held, with the upside target of $91,091 still very much intact.
Bollinger Bands point to continued upward momentum
A weekly chart published on the TradingView platform reveals that Bitcoin is still trading above the 20-period simple moving average (20 SMA), which serves as the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, this key level stands at $74,986, and remaining above it is considered essential for maintaining medium-term upward momentum.
If Bitcoin manages to hold above this region, the upper band—$91,091—reemerges as a viable target, becoming the market’s primary technical objective in the near term.
7.8 million BTC supply overhang and psychological hurdles
A notable evaluation from on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode highlights a phase where investor psychology plays a bigger role than technical indicators. According to recent data, about 7.8 million Bitcoins are sitting at the $76,700 price level, waiting to become profitable for their holders. This sizable amount includes positions from both short- and long-term investors.
A substantial portion of this “trapped” supply was accumulated during previous bull run peaks. Now, this overhang exerts downward pressure on the market as it hangs over every attempt at an upward move. As BTC approaches the $90,000 threshold, investors holding these positions may opt to sell to recoup losses, intensifying resistance and making rallies harder to sustain.
Glassnode’s data underscores that “for a secure upward movement, millions of Bitcoins in the market will need to be absorbed by new holders before this resistance is convincingly broken.”
Institutional buying and external influences
Despite the persistent supply overhang, a segment of this Bitcoin stash continues to be purchased by institutional investors adopting a medium-term perspective. Latest figures show that a firm known as Strategy expanded its portfolio by an additional 24,869 Bitcoins last week. These acquisitions came even as global markets faced volatility due to rising US 10-year Treasury yields and mounting geopolitical tensions.
Analysts point out that such institutional inflows help alleviate selling pressure in the market. If current resistance levels are broken, Bitcoin could again target the upper range projected by technical indicators.
In summary, the market currently faces a tug-of-war between persistent technical support and psychological barriers stemming from unprofitable holdings. Nevertheless, ongoing institutional interest signals underlying confidence in Bitcoin’s future performance.
For bullish investors, closely watching price action around the $74,986 and $91,091 levels will be key in the weeks ahead. Maintaining support above these thresholds may determine whether renewed rallies can build momentum or if supply-driven resistance prevails.
At the same time, macroeconomic factors such as the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and global risk sentiment are set to keep driving volatility in both directions. Short-term corrections may continue amid uncertainty, but the medium-term outlook remains constructive as long as support holds firm.
Ultimately, the next major move for BTC will depend not only on technical signals and fundamental demand, but also on how quickly unprofitable supply can be absorbed and new institutional capital enters the market.
