After last week’s steep selloff in the crypto market, Bitcoin and the broader sector have shown signs of a partial recovery. The total market capitalization currently stands at $2.57 trillion, with daily trading volume measured at $60 billion. Bitcoin, after a brief dip, climbed back up to the $77,000 level.
Massive BTC inflows to Binance
For the past ten days, an uninterrupted stream of large Bitcoin deposits has been recorded at Binance. Data shared by crypto researcher Darkfost shows the weekly average Bitcoin inflow to Binance rose from 378 BTC on May 16 to 1,190 BTC on May 25. Notably, over 3,600 BTC were deposited in a single day on May 18.
These inflows have significantly raised the amount of Bitcoin held in Binance wallets over the past month. While reserves were around 616,000 BTC at the end of April, they reached approximately 632,000 BTC by May 25. This means some 16,000 BTC have been transferred to the exchange in just one month.
Analysts monitor these BTC transfers closely, as increasing flows to exchanges often signal heightened selling pressure on the market.
Market sentiment and ETF outflows
Even as Bitcoin staged a minor rebound over the past 24 hours, the seven-day sentiment index returned to positive territory. However, the asset is still down 12 percent since the start of the year. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $77,101.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs, which had recovered rapidly in recent weeks, have seen renewed and substantial outflows. Data from Sosovalue reveals total Bitcoin ETF outflows exceeding $1.2 billion over the past week. For May as a whole, the loss stands at $1 billion.
Analysts are now focused on whether capital will return to ETFs in the short term. If the pace of outflows continues in the coming week, it could darken the outlook for the broader market.
| Date Range | BTC Inflow (Binance) | Bitcoin ETF Outflow |
|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 16,000 BTC | $1 billion |
| Last 1 week | Several thousand BTC | $1.2 billion |
Actions of major investors (whales)
According to Alphractal’s “Whale vs Retail Delta” data, the market is witnessing a distinct divergence. This metric indicates the strongest positive separation since November 2024, highlighting renewed interest from major investors.
Recently, the Strategy fund increased its Bitcoin holdings by 24,869 BTC, pushing its total up by nearly $2 billion. The average acquisition price for these purchases was calculated at $80,985 per BTC.
Additionally, an old whale wallet dormant since 2013 transferred about 500 BTC, and wallets holding over 1,000 BTC collectively acquired 47,000 more coins over the past two weeks.
Quick guide: “Whale vs Retail Delta” is a market metric that tracks the difference in buying and selling tendencies between major and retail investors. A positive divergence signals that large players are engaging in net purchases.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 28, indicating signs of panic among smaller investors, while major players are ramping up their buying. Last week, the Strategy fund scooped up 24,869 BTC (about $2 billion), and a long-dormant wallet from 2013 moved 500 BTC. At the same time, there was a 47,000 BTC increase in wallets holding over 1,000 BTC in the last two weeks.
Mixed signals across the market
Experts point to growing contradictions in the market, with increased exchange inflows and ETF outflows on one side, and notable buying activity from whales on the other. As retail investors focus on limiting their losses, long-term players and affluent traders are working to capitalize on the current price levels. If macroeconomic risks recede, this divergence is expected to play a decisive role in the market’s next direction.
