The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin’s slide, is being linked to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and speculations surrounding Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy’s reported asset sales. However, Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, argues that these factors are less influential than historical patterns and mathematical cycles in driving price movements.
Debate over the four-year cycle returns
According to Cowen, the commonly cited four-year cycle, which some analysts claim has lost relevance, is now resurfacing in forecasts for 2026. He describes June as a period that may appear stable on the surface but is marked by deepening underlying weakness in the price of Bitcoin.
Into The Cryptoverse has established itself as a leading research platform specializing in on-chain data and market cycle analysis. In Cowen’s view, Bitcoin continues to follow timing patterns observed in prior cycles, this time also mapped out on a weekly basis.
Benjamin Cowen observes that while external headlines often catch the market’s attention, they typically mask the ongoing influence of historical and mathematical structures, with the current situation strongly resembling previous cycles.
Within this framework, Cowen notes that the cycle’s peak is projected to occur in October 2025 at around $126,200, which corresponds to the 1,162nd day after the absolute bottom. He emphasizes that this timing closely mirrors previous cycles. Data showing selling pressure at the start of this year supports this perspective: Bitcoin fell 10.1 percent in January and 14.8 percent in February. The combined 12 percent recovery in March and April is considered more of a temporary rebound than a sustainable rally.
The 200-day moving average as a key threshold
The analysis points out that Bitcoin failed to hold above the widely followed 200-day simple moving average, a technical level considered significant by traders. Thus, the rally seen in spring did not mark a shift in the primary trend, but was rather a short-lived counter move.
Cowen remarks that this rebound lasted 16 weeks, falling within the classic “dead cat bounce” range of 15 to 25 weeks. If this scenario holds, the market could see another wave of selling before reaching a true bottom.
June data and the 60,000 dollar scenario
Optimistic investors highlight Bitcoin’s historical average return of 6.91 percent for June as a positive signal. Cowen cautions, however, that this figure is skewed by outsized gains of 85.3 percent in 2011 and 27.1 percent in 2019, making the average less reliable as a solitary indicator.
Historical precedent suggests that in the post-peak correction phases of past market cycles, June typically ends with a decline. Cowen also points out that June, in US midterm election years, has often been a period of weakness for digital assets. Weighed down by falling trading volume and a negative fundamental outlook, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaching its local low of $60,000 seen in February is considered high.
Autumn signals the potential ultimate bottom
Based on cyclical return models, the pressure on Bitcoin is expected to persist through the summer, with September also shaping up to be challenging. Cowen projects that the final low in the current four-year cycle could form between October and November 2026.
By that point, Bitcoin may have largely exhausted its downward momentum and could be poised to set the stage for the next wide-ranging bull trend. Still, this outlook is grounded in historical similarities and may change depending on evolving market conditions.
